The presidential race is likely to continue to be a toss-up until voters go to the polls on Nov. 5, election forecaster Nate Silver said in his latest column published on Tuesday
"I've never seen an election in which the forecast spent more time in the vicinity of 50/50, and I probably never will," Silver wrote, adding that there were a few instances in the past few months where it appeared that the election was swinging in one direction, "but they proved to be false starts."
Silver pointed out that after Vice President Kamala Harris replaced President Joe Biden at the top of the Democrat ticket, her numbers surged in the surveys, only for former President Donald Trump to gain ground in the aftermath of the Democratic National Convention.
"The debate came at this moment, however — and Harris won and reestablished what's been a consistent lead of about three points in national polls — close enough where the Electoral College is roughly 50/50 or maybe a slight Harris edge," Silver wrote.
Although he said that a significant enough event in the news or an unforeseen factor could swing the momentum once again before Election Day, he noted that it is highly unlikely, as the number of undecided voters continues to decrease.
"With extremely few undecided voters (Harris and Trump combine for 95.5% of the vote in our national average and third parties typically get another 1% or 2%) there just aren't enough votes in play to really move the needle," Silver wrote in his column. "And polls simply aren't accurate enough to provide for much more confidence than that."
Brian Freeman ✉
Brian Freeman, a Newsmax writer based in Israel, has more than three decades writing and editing about culture and politics for newspapers, online and television.
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