US Missteps on Nuke Deal Benefits Iran, Others

The Iranian (nuclear) deal has been criticized mainly from a technical point of view.

For example, the fact that nuclear inspectors are denied access to Iranian military facilities has raised some eyebrows. It essentially allows Iran to avoid inspection altogether by simply moving their nuclear research and engineering programs onto military installations.

But aside from this and other technical inadequacies, there are several non-technical aspects which could significantly affect our calculations of the threat to U.S. national security posed by the Iranian nuclear deal.

These non-technical considerations include the following:

• The Obama administration miscalculated the threat of radical Islam. We cannot afford miscalculations with regard to the Iranian nuclear deal.

• The danger of radical Islam was underestimated, misunderstood, or ignored by the prior presidential administration. Official policy predictions, analyses, and calculations were therefore woefully inadequate and largely ineffective. For example, Obama predicted that the world would become more peaceful after the killing of Bin Laden. The actual result was exactly the opposite. The world became more violent.

• Furthermore, Obama referred to ISIS as a "JV team" of "jihadists," engaged in various local power struggles and disputes, often sectarian. Later on, he admitted that he underestimated the threat ISIS posed to U.S. national security. The enormity of the miscalculations can only be attributed to ignorance, wishful thinking, willful blindness — or something less benign.

• Can we really afford that kind of potential miscalculation regarding the Iranian nuclear deal? It would seem unwise at best, and criminal or suicidal at worst.

• Iran’s Shia-mullah ideology encourages martyrdom.The Iranian Shia-mullah ideology encourages the concept of martyrdom. Death is not a deterrent for them. This means that the MAD doctrine (mutually assured destruction) does not apply and must be disregarded in the development of theories about nuclear strategy against the current Iranian leadership. People who regard martyrdom as a sacred duty really ought to be kept far away from weapons of mass destruction.

• The Shia theocracy does not allow checks or balances for religious orders of their highest religious authority; there is no fail-safe in the event of individual moral breakdown or even error.Most of the nuclear powers have systems of government that would prevent one dangerous or demented individual from starting a nuclear holocaust unopposed. Even dictators need minions; they require some need for consensus and persuasion. The Shia theocracy in Iran has no such restraints.

• There is not a single person in the Iranian power structure that can reject or refuse an order from the supreme religious leader, Aiatu Allah Khamenei. If Khamenei is not himself a bad or unbalanced or dangerous man (which is not to say that is the case, only that even if it is), there is no guarantee at all that his successor will not be. And there is simply no good time or place in history for a single human being to wield the unconstrained power to lay Earth to waste.

• Iranian nuclear capabilities would likely be shared with other Shia militant groups.

• If the Iranian theocracy ever manages to develop nuclear weapons, they will—for several compelling theological reasons — very likely bestow such weapons upon their Shia affiliates at least in the region. In other words, if Iran gets nukes, Hezbollah in Lebanon and Ansar Allah (Houthi Rebels) in Yemen almost certainly also get nukes. Aside from the obvious horror implicit in this scenario, it could also ignite an unprecedented and perhaps uncontrollable nuclear race among other non-state actors and terrorist organizations in the Mideast and across the globe.

• What then prevents a nuclear device from falling into the hands of, for example, Hamas in Gaza? Hamas would not hesitate to wipe Israel from the face of the earth. It is their stated goal and passion. The Palestinian jihadists would delight in destroying their neighbour, even if it means certain death for themselves. The slightest hint of a possibility of nuclear proliferation among non-state actors must be eradicated at all costs.

• Just as the Iranian regime defies traditional nuclear doctrine (MAD), so it also defies traditional conceptions of how a nuclear war plays out. Traditional nuclear delivery capabilities are not the only threat. The recent Iranian ballistic missile test is indeed somewhat alarming, but it may not be nearly as dangerous as our heretofore porous borders and less than optimal border security protocols. That sophisticated smuggling operations could introduce dirty nuclear materials to U.S. soil cannot be dismissed as outside the realm of possibility. President Trump’s attempts to secure our borders should be applauded rather than censured.

In brief, the timing indicated in the Iranian nuclear deal will only work for the benefit of the Iranian regime. The longer we delay correctly and directly confronting this problem, the more likely we are to wake up one morning to discover a nuclear-armed Islamic-mullah regime. And nightmare becomes reality.

Dr. Tawfik Hamid is the author of "Inside Jihad: How Radical Islam Works, Why It Should Terrify Us, How to Defeat It." Read more reports from Tawfik Hamid — Click Here Now