January's important consumer price index (CPI) figures — from the Federal Reserve — will be released Tuesday.
December's CPI was the smallest year-over-year increase since October 2021, at 6.5% on an annual basis, down from a 9.1% peak in June 2022.
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said after the recent Fed meeting that disinflation, a slowing of inflation, "has begun."
While goods inflation has come down in recent months, analysts expect that supply chain disruptions will still impact the CPI.
Ocean freight rates and transportation fuels have come down sharply, CNBC reported, but bloated inventories due to a lack of consumer demand are sustaining upward pressure on warehouse rates.
Some shippers are holding their products in containers on chassis because of full warehouses and distribution centers, but this means they're incurring charges which are passed on to the consumer, CNBC reported.
Shippers are given an allotted amount of free time during which they are not charged for holding a container, but once those days expire, they start to be charged per diem charges (i.e., late container charges that are charged for containers out of port), CNBC explained.
Containers left on chassis prevents those chassis from being used to move newly arriving containers, putting additional stress on chassis pools throughout the U.S., especially inland rail ramp pools.
Charges for warehousing are still at historic highs. And late fees and warehouse fees are passed onto the consumer.
Construction has been impacted, with increased prices for materials. Other industries have been affected by disruptions and shortages in China and elsewhere. And as a result of the tariffs imposed on China, consumers experience higher prices at the register.
The war between Russia and Ukraine has exacerbated inflation challenges as well. Russia is a major energy supplier, and both countries are typically major agricultural exporters. The war has interrupted some shipments, adding to inflation.
The Fed is now more focused on services inflation, in particular labor prices, as it expects the pressure in goods inflation to continue a downward trend, CNBC observed. But the logistics issues suggest there will be some elements of sticky inflation on the goods side of the equation.
"The market is starting to sense that the very comforting disinflation story is more complex than we would like it to be," said Mohamed El-Erian, Allianz chief economic adviser, to CNBC. "The comforting story was simple: Goods disinflation continues, and service inflation comes down, that wonderful concept that Chair Powell calls core services, ex-housing, comes down and, lo and behold, we don't have an inflation problem.
"Now we're starting to see certain goods reverse this inflationary process so there's more uncertainty about inflation."
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