Researchers say the ongoing civil unrest taking place across the country isn't just a reaction to societal issues, Study Finds reports.
Mathematically speaking, the country was due for a period of protests and turmoil, according to a study.
Peter Turchin, a Russian American scientist from the University of Connecticut, predicted the unrest that has taken place over the past few years in the U.S. and western Europe would occur back in 2010 using the structural-demographic theory.
In a new paper published in the journal PLOS ONE, Turchin and co-author Andrey Korotayev explain how math can be used to forecast future events.
According to the study, there is a mathematical theory to determine when a country will face social and political instability. Using the theory, researchers say the U.S. will experience a violent surge every 50 years.
To come up with their predictions, the scientists created a historical theory before making any calculations. The original 2010 study found that violence took place in 50-year cycles in 1870s, 1920s, and 1970s.
Experts say the unrest isn't short lived either. They predict social turmoil can last anywhere from 10 to 15 years. The country began experiencing an uptick in protests that have sometimes become violent following the police killing of George Floyd, a Black man, in Minnesota on Memorial Day. Nationwide, there have been calls for racial justice and police reform.
The SDT theory was created by American sociologist and historian Jack Goldstone. He used math to apply the theory to historical processes in order to see which forces interact and lead to riots, revolutions, and even civil wars.
According to Goldstone, all major social and political movements occur after a surge in births. With larger populations, the standard of living declines, which causes civil unrest to begin.
When that occurs, the model shows that financial and social elite begin taking sides. With all factors in play, violence then takes place, which can sometimes lead to civil war.
Using SDT, Turchin and Russian scientists are looking to develop models that may help predict the future. They are looking into factors like the state, population, elite members, and any type of instability. They are looking to create a "political stress indicator."
Using that methodology, their research shows stressors were off the charts before things like the French Revolution and English Civil War took place.
Turchin's study indicates that social unrest in the U.S. and U.K. is worse than it was during the last period of turmoil 50 years ago. The research team also noted that epidemics often occur during times of social instability, which can lead to more public frustration.
They hope to create a tool that scientists can use to review policies that are leading to protests.
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