Don't Count Out Rand Paul

Don't count Rand Paul out of the political spotlight yet.

Less than a month after a Politico story concluded Rand Paul’s presidential campaign was in a “downward spiral” — and several pundits predicted he would be the first casualty in the Republican Party’s “Gang of 17” for 2016 — the Kentucky senator has recently demonstrated he is still in the fray — at least in his home state.

On Saturday, the Kentucky Republican Party’s State Central Committee bowed out from the state’s presidential primary next May and instead will choose national convention delegates through a caucus system beginning in March.

Enacted by a vote of two-thirds of the committee, the move from primary to caucus means that Paul will not be in violation of state election law by appearing on the same ballot more than once.

Accordingly, he will be able to seek renomination to his Senate seat regardless of how he fares in the presidential sweepstakes.

While many observers felt that the freshman senator would suffer from his plan to restructure party rules, the most recent Public Policy Polling survey shows Paul handily winning re-election over the state’s two most popular Democrats.

Among likely voters statewide, PPP reports, Paul defeats Gov. Steve Beshear (who is termed out this year) by 49 percent to 39 percent and Lt. Gov. Crit Luallen by 51 percent to 37 percent. Neither Beshear nor Luallen has yet signaled a run.

The same poll showed that in a test presidential race, Paul would defeat Hillary Clinton by 44 percent to 42 percent statewide. Paul’s status as the state’s junior senator notwithstanding, Kentucky has long been considered Clinton country.

Bill Clinton twice carried its electoral votes for president and, in 2008, Hillary Clinton swept the presidential primary with 65 percent of the vote over Barack Obama.

The motion resoundingly passed by the GOP’s state central committee this Saturday to opt out of the presidential primary for a caucus was offered by Mike Duncan, former Republican National chairman and supporter of Jeb Bush for president.

Speaking to Newsmax from Frankfort shortly after the vote, Duncan told me that “a lot of supporters of the motion said ‘Rand deserves the right to run for president.’ But this was not really about Rand Paul being a favorite son. [It's about t]he Republican Party of Kentucky and its ability to attract activists in early March and to attract national attention early in the race.”

Pointing out that running a caucus would cost Kentucky Republicans about $500,000, Duncan attached a condition to the motion requiring $250,000 in a certified check to the party on or before Sept. 18, or the party would revert to the primary. “As chairman of the Budget Committee, I had to do that,” he said.

In a letter distributed to committee members before the meeting, Paul wrote that he has “transferred $250,000 in a [Republican Party of Kentucky] account to begin the funding. I also pledge to you that I will raise or transfer in another $200,000 at a date agreed upon by my team."

John Gizzi is chief political columnist and White House correspondent for Newsmax.