NY Times: National Murder Rate Should See Major Decline for 2018

Murders are down in 66 large American cities this year by about 7 percent, meaning U.S. figures should see its biggest one-year drop in five years as estimates from a sample of big cities typically tend to be good markers for nationwide numbers, according to a report in The New York Times.

U.S. murder rates fell in 2017 for the first time since 2014, according to FBI data, along with the number of homicides in America’s 50 biggest cities.

The murder rate fell from 5.4 per 100,000 people in 2016 to 5.3 per 100,000 in 2017, a nearly 2 percent drop, and should be down by around 4 percent to 5 percent nationally this year, or about 5 murders per 100,000 people, per the Times.

Murders are down in Chicago (17 percent), Baltimore (35 percent), Charlotte, N.C. (36 percent), Louisville, Ky. (25 percent), and Memphis (24 percent).

Murder rates are still up since 2013, when there was a 3.6 percent decline nationally.

The Times used data from local official sources and media sources, and said the sample of cities used accurately predicted the change in the national murder rate every year but 2002.

The Brennan Center for Justice in September also predicted a decline in murder rates, but only analyzed crime data from police departments in the 30 largest U.S. cities.

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