Analysis: Biden Vote Would Dominate Mail-In Ballots

Joe Biden supporters will dominate the vote-by-mail process and President Donald Trump will garner more support among Americans who vote at the polls on Election Day, a new analysis finds.

FiveThirtyEight examined the results of several recent polls around casting votes via mail-in ballots versus in person at polling places and found that the night of the election — Nov. 3 — could be interesting.

If recent polling results hold true roughly two months from now, "it would mean votes cast on Election Day would skew heavily toward Trump, and votes cast by mail would skew heavily toward Biden. This has serious implications for … well, democracy," FiveThirtyEight's Nathaniel Rakich wrote.

"First, Trump could argue the mail ballots (which, remember, could account for most of Biden's votes) were fraudulent and thus should not be counted. Although it's unlikely they'd actually be thrown out, this would damage the credibility of the election in the eyes of many Trump supporters.

"Second, it could mean the first votes counted on election night will be disproportionately good for Trump, who might claim victory based on incomplete returns. It might not be until days later, after a good chunk of the Democratic-leaning mail vote is counted, that Biden pulls ahead."

Trump and his supporters have bashed the practice of voting by mail for months, saying that it would lead to fraudulent voting. The U.S. Postal Service has also come under the microscope for what some see as unpreparedness to handle the millions of ballots that would need to be delivered, picked up, sorted, and delivered back to election officials for counting.

With the COVID-19 pandemic still raging and certain precautions such as wearing masks and social distancing becoming politicized, many Biden supporters are taking a more cautious approach to the election and support casting their votes through the mail. Republicans, on the other hand, tend to balk at mail-in voting and would like to see ballots filled out at polling places on Election Day.

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