Could China Bring Russia, Ukraine to Peace?

Much praise has been given to China for its role in brokering a deal between Saudi Arabia and Iran to restore formal diplomatic relations, ending years of icy hostility between the two regional powers.

It was especially surprising that China’s efforts to broker a diplomatic rapprochement between two such high-profile nations succeeded when other regional actors such as Iraq and Oman had previously failed to bring the Iranians and the Saudis to diplomacy.

Whether China will be able to translate this diplomatic accomplishment into a more meaningful role in the Mideast remains to be seen.

The advantage for China was that there was no expectation that it would exercise any sort of meaningful influence over Iran and Saudi Arabia, even though it has been steadily expanding its economic presence throughout the region, most notably with its Belt and Road Initiative.

Aaron Hiller has argued in Foreign Policy that China did not commit to assuming the role of a monitor or referee, perhaps recognizing that such a role would drag it into the quicksand of ever-shifting allegiances and animosities that has characterized Mideast politics for centuries.

So China was able to win points in the global arena without assuming the much greater risks inherent in playing the peacemaker role that the U.S. has attempted to do over the past several decades.

Now China has decided that it's ready to step up to peacemaking, offering its assistance to Russia and Ukraine to mediate an end to the 16-month long conflict which has seen the Russian military engage in atrocities killing thousands of innocent Ukrainians, and left entire cities such as Bakhmut and Mariupol in ruin.

But China finds itself facing two bloodied countries whose conditions for a cease-fire are diametrically opposed: Ukraine demands that Russia withdraw from all occupied lands of Ukraine including the Crimea which Russia illegally annexed in 2014; Russia, not surprisingly, has conditioned any cease fire on Ukraine agreeing to cede the territories Russia has occupied — which would give it a land bridge along the coast of the Black Sea from Russia’s western frontier to the Crimean peninsula.

Not surprisingly, Ukraine views any cease-fire with enormous suspicion, believing that it would merely allow Russia time to rebuild its badly-damaged military forces and launch yet another invasion against Ukraine in the future.

So China finds itself wading into a situation in which there does not appear to be much room for agreement, particularly since its own motives are viewed with suspicion by both Ukraine and many European nations as well as the United States itself.

After all, it was only a few weeks before Russia launched its barbaric attack on Ukraine in February 2022 that President Putin of Russia and President Xi of China met in Beijing at the start of the Olympic Games, pledging that their countries would maintain an enduring partnership, one knowing "no limits."

The fact that the Russian tanks rumbled across the Ukrainian border soon afterwards caused many to suspect that Xi had prior knowledge of Putin’s plans for Ukraine and had at least tacitly offered his support for what he expected would be a quick victory by Russian forces. 

The war between Russia and Ukraine has become one of attrition which would appear to favor the far larger Russian forces which (before the invasion) numbered more than 1.3 million personnel (including active duty, reserve and paramilitary) as compared to Ukraine’s 500,000 personnel.

However, the sheer ferocity with which the Ukrainians have defended their homeland coupled with the massive amounts of weapons provided by Ukraine’s European and American benefactors have stopped the Russian advance in its tracks and, in many areas, caused the Russian forces to withdraw from some parts of the occupied eastern periphery of the country.

So now Xi must try to broker a peace between Russia — which it has openly embraced as its eternal political and economic partner — with Ukraine, a country that deeply distrusts Beijing’s political motivations and doubts that its diplomatic overtures are purely altruistic.

According to CNBC, China’s task is to seek a peace deal with Ukraine that does not humiliate Russia.

This means that China will have to somehow gain Ukraine’s trust even though its actions to date in support of Russia have arguably made such a task impossible. 

So if the odds for a successful mediation of the war are so remote, why would China wish to insert itself in this dispute at all?

First, it would like to cement its status as a major trading partner of the EU:

In 2022, the EU purchased nearly 626 billion euros in goods from China while China in turn imported 230 billion euros in goods from the EU, thus leaving China with a yawning 396 billion euro trade surplus that it undoubtedly would like to preserve. 

Second, China would like to take a more central role in shaping European security matters by bringing the warring parties to the table and thus, if successful, further displace the United States from its longstanding dominant position in security matters in Europe.

Various Europeans leaders including President Emmanuel Macon of France and European Commision President Ursula von der Leyen have urged China to use its influence with Russian to bring about a cessation of hostilities. 

Third, a China-brokered settlement could provide a "face-saving" solution that would leave Putin’s regime in power and bind Russia even more tightly to China.

Russia’s atrocities in Ukraine will likely cause it to be considered a pariah state for many years.

China will doubtless continue to be Russia’s primary market for energy and raw materials and thereby further increase Russian economic dependence on and, to some extent, its political subservience, to Beijing.

This asymmetric relationship will help to enable China to leverage its influence over Russia in its on-going efforts to remake the international system in its own image.

Jefferson Hane Weaver is a transactional lawyer residing in Florida. He received his undergraduate degree in Economics and Political Science from the University of North Carolina and his J.D. and Ph.D. in International Relations from Columbia University. Dr. Weaver is the author of numerous books on varied compelling subjects. Read more of his reports — Here.