Last week I wrote about how the sentiment indicators were sending mixed messages
, and nothing has changed this week. In fact, things got more confusing.
The AAII Sentiment Survey saw an increase in the bearish percentage and a decline in the bullish percentage, which brought the ratio down to 1.0. But the more important statistic is that the four-week moving average fell to 1.03, which is the lowest reading since last September.
The 21-day moving average on the CBOE Equity Put/Call ratio broke out of a range by moving up to 0.6257, the highest reading since last July.
Both of these readings are indicative of increased bearish sentiment toward the overall market.
On the opposite side is the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX), which dropped below the 12 level Monday — the first time since January and only the sixth time in the past year.
A low VIX is indicative of investor complacency or extreme bullishness.
So we have two indicators showing extreme bearishness and one showing extreme bullishness.
And while this is all going on, the Dow Jones Industrial Average reached a new high and the S&P 500 is on the verge of setting a new high.
It is said that stocks like to climb a wall of worry, and right now there are indications that there is a certain percentage of investors who are worried. I think as much as anything, investors are uncertain.
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