With the Commitment of Traders reports finally being fully updated after the government shutdown, I decided it was time for an update on some articles from September.
Back on Sept. 17, I cautioned that the huge bullish position
that large speculators had built up in oil could lead to a pullback in oil prices.
Here it is two months later and the price of crude has dropped from $110 a barrel to $93 a barrel, a 15 percent decline.
The dip has brought the price down to the trend line that connects the lows from the past two years, and oil is oversold at this point.
With these two technical factors, I would normally be thinking that it was time for a rally. However, even though oil has declined by 15 percent, the large speculators are still holding steady, with over 300,000 contracts held net long.
On Sept. 24, I wrote about the 10-year Treasury note
and how hated the debt instruments were by both large and small speculators.
The price of the 10-year Treasury did rise enough for the yields to fall from 3 percent in September down to 2.5 percent in October.
Despite the move up in price, large speculators have added to their bearish position and currently have more than 181,000 contracts sold short.
While everyone is expecting interest rates to rise because the Federal Reserve has to let up on the quantitative easing and raise the Fed Funds rate, the 10-year Treasury notes are not controlled by the Fed.
Interest rates can continue to fall, despite what everyone thinks should happen.
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