Tags: Minerd | yield | Treasury | negative

Guggenheim's Minerd: US 10-Year Treasury Yield Could Hit 1 Percent or Lower

By    |   Friday, 03 April 2015 06:00 AM EDT

Treasury yields have confounded the market consensus for an increase this year, falling from 2.17 percent at the end of 2014.

And Scott Minerd, global chief investment officer for Guggenheim Investments, believes the trend will continue. "The big question is will the overflow of negative yields in Europe push us to levels on interest rates in the U.S. that we think would be completely [unsustainable]," he tells CNBC. "That's the risk."

In Germany, government bonds (bunds) with maturities of up to five years have negative yields.

"If 10-year bunds were to go to a negative yield, could we see 10-year U.S. Treasurys at 1 percent or lower?" Minerd asks. "I wouldn't rule it out." Ten-year bunds yielded 0.17 percent Thursday.

The dollar's strength will help attract investors to Treasurys, he notes. The euro fell to a 12-year low against the greenback last month.

The euro could fall to 80 to 85 cents this year, Minerd predicts. Given that scenario, "why wouldn't European investors continue piling into U.S. Treasurys?"

But things could change for the better in Europe.

The eurozone economy grew only 0.9 percent last year, and coming into this year many analysts were concerned about the possibility of another recession.

However, "the latest economic data from the eurozone suggest that recovery may be at hand," economist Nouriel Roubini of New York University writes in an article for Project Syndicate.

Aggressive easing by the European Central Bank (ECB) has helped spark the rebound, he says. The ECB is buying 60 billion euros ($65 billion) of bonds a month to jumpstart the economy. And the euro's drop has boosted exports.

"But a more robust and sustained recovery still faces many challenges. For starters, political risks could derail progress," Roubini writes. "Slow job creation and income growth may continue to fuel the populist backlash against austerity and reform," he says.

So what should Europe do to extend the recovery?

"Germany needs to adopt policies — fiscal stimulus, higher spending on infrastructure and public investment and more rapid wage growth — that would boost domestic spending and reduce the country's external surplus," Roubini argues.

© 2025 Newsmax Finance. All rights reserved.


StreetTalk
Treasury yields have confounded the market consensus for an increase this year, falling from 2.17 percent at the end of 2014.
Minerd, yield, Treasury, negative
351
2015-00-03
Friday, 03 April 2015 06:00 AM
Newsmax Media, Inc.

Sign up for Newsmax’s Daily Newsletter

Receive breaking news and original analysis - sent right to your inbox.

(Optional for Local News)
Privacy: We never share your email address.
Join the Newsmax Community
Read and Post Comments
Please review Community Guidelines before posting a comment.
 
Newsmax2 Live
 
On Now:5:00p ET • Carl Higbie This Week
Coming Up:6:00p ET • The Record With Greta Van Susteren Weekly
Get Newsmax Text Alerts

Newsmax, Moneynews, Newsmax Health, and Independent. American. are registered trademarks of Newsmax Media, Inc. Newsmax TV, and Newsmax World are trademarks of Newsmax Media, Inc.

NEWSMAX.COM
MONEYNEWS.COM
© 2025 Newsmax Media, Inc.
All Rights Reserved
NEWSMAX.COM
MONEYNEWS.COM
© Newsmax Media, Inc.
All Rights Reserved