Gold’s top forecaster, who in February abandoned her bearish outlook to correctly call bullion’s surge, sees more gains in store before prices taper off by year-end.
The metal will climb to $1,425 an ounce by the end of September, 4.4 percent higher than now, before dipping in the following six months amid prospects for higher U.S. interest rates, said Georgette Boele, a currency and commodity analyst at ABN Amro Bank NV. The 43-year old was rated by Bloomberg as the most accurate forecaster.
Boele has been right on the way up and also the way down. At the start of 2013, she was among the most bearish analysts before gold capped its first annual drop in 13 years. She called for lower prices until just a few months after bullion touched a five-year low in December. With Brexit-related concerns over the global economy’s strength and U.S. interest rates not expected to rise anytime soon, gold’s now near a two-year high.
"My two best calls were getting on the right side of the downturn when everyone was bullish, and this year becoming positive before the crowd,” Boele, who has been in trading, sales and forecasting for a decade, said by e-mail from Amsterdam. “We expect rate hikes in 2017, with gold prices anticipating that around the turn of the year before gains are extended.”
Gold for immediate delivery traded at $1,365.13 by 1:14 p.m. in London, according to Bloomberg generic pricing. Prices have jumped 29 percent this year and are up 13 percent since Boele turned bullish in February.
One of the things that cemented her decision to change tack was gold’s advance above its 200-day moving average, a level watched by traders and analysts who study charts to predict future moves.
“After so many years being under pressure, that move was crucial in highlighting that the dynamics started to change,” she said.
She raised her forecast for the end of the third quarter by $75 on Wednesday and sees prices then retreating to $1,350 by year-end and $1,300 by late March. The advance will then resume to $1,450 by the end of 2017.
The bank increased forecasts for other metals. Silver will end this quarter at $21.50 an ounce an ounce, up from $19.94 now. Platinum will be at $1,150 an ounce, about 6 percent higher than now, and palladium should climb to $620. It traded at $608 today.
While gold has rallied as investors sought a haven, jewelry demand has remained weak, Boele said.
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