Investment guru Art Cashin tells CNBC that using inverted yield curve as a recessionary indicator may not be as reliable today as it has been in the past.

“The inverted yield curve is slightly suspect because this time it’s for a separate reason,” said Cashin, UBS director of floor operations at the New York Stock Exchange. The difference, he said, is that past inversions came when the Fed was tightening policy, while this has come during a loosening period, CNBC explained.

An inverted yield curve, which happens when shorter-term bonds deliver higher yields than longer-term bonds, has preceded every U.S. recession over the past half century.

“Usually before a recession, the Fed has been tightening rates so that the short end moves up above intermediate to the longer end,” Cashin said.

The opposite is happening now, signaling the Fed may not be cutting short-term interest rates enough to keep up with the bond market.

Cashin says, “In this case, the longer end moved down to go under the Fed,” whose critics says central bankers have created a floor on shorter-term yields.

Meanwhile, recession fears are on the minds of a growing share of U.S. homebuyers, half of whom say they’ll pause their search if a downturn arrives, Bloomberg explained.

More than 36% of 755 active buyers surveyed this month said they expect the next recession to begin next year, according to a survey released Wednesday by Realtor.com. That’s up from less than 30% in March. About 56% of respondents to the latest poll said they would postpone home-shopping if the economy hits the skids.

Elsewhere, while there seems to be no end on the horizon to this year’s dramatic rally in U.S. Treasuries that has collapsed yields more than a full percentage point, conditions are ripening for a reversal that could disrupt the market, Reuters explained.

Some signals analysts track point to higher yields, although no one knows when the shift is coming.

The consensus view is that U.S. yields could go even lower. A protracted U.S.-China trade war, a darkening global economic outlook, and the Federal Reserve’s monetary easing stance are bullish for Treasury prices.

Still, yields this low are getting harder to justify, some analysts said. Some investors have hedged against a possible U.S. rate rise by reducing holdings of long-term bonds and grabbing other fixed-income products such as private debt and structured credit.

“This feels to me like dot-com level cockiness on this side of the bond bulls,” said Kevin Muir, market strategist at East West Investment Management in Toronto.

“I would just caution as somebody who has been through a lot of market shifts, that as we get more and more euphoric and more volatile, the chances of a big move, snapping back and hurting people in a big way will increase dramatically,” he added.

Material from Bloomberg and Reuters has been used in this report.