Byron Wien, vice chairman of Blackstone Advisory Partners, has been predicting a stock market correction for months. And even with stocks breaking record highs, he’s sticking to his guns.
Global monetary easing has left equities over-baked, Wien tells CNBC. “I think this is a market that’s levitating on monetary expansion, not only in the United States but in Europe and in Japan.”
The Federal Reserve has added more than $2 trillion to its balance sheet over the last five years, and it will likely add another $1 trillion this year, Wien says.
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So when money supply finally stops growing, “it's going to have an impact on the market,” he explains.
In addition, profit margins are peaking, both as a percentage of sales and of national income, Wien says. Furthermore, he expects earnings to disappoint.
“I'm not a bear, but I do think the market has come a long way — up 16 percent last year, up 10 percent in the first quarter alone. I think a correction is coming.”
University of Pennsylvania finance professor Jeremy Siegel doesn’t share Wien’s caution. He predicts the Dow Jones Industrial Average will reach 16,000 this year.
That would represent a 9.5 percent gain from 14,606 Thursday’s close.
“The low interest rates are going to fuel continual [earnings]-multiple expansion. I think earnings are going to be better,” Siegel tells Yahoo. “We’re not done yet. I think this market has a lot of room to run.”
With bond yields so low, stocks should have higher price-earnings ratios, he maintains.
Editor's Note: The Final Turning Predicted for America. See Proof.
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