There is an interesting development underway in the Automotive Manufacturing Group that is no longer led by General Motors (GM) or Ford (F) but by Tesla (TSLA) which has outperformed the traditional car companies this year in terms of price return and market cap.
Tesla is up by + 390.45% in 2020 through yesterday while General Motors (GM) and Ford (F) are up by 12.24% and down by -8.42% for the year. However, in the recent rally we have noticed a subtle change. Tesla is falling since the end of August while General Motors and Ford along with Toyota Motor (TM), Honda Motor (HM) and Fiat Chrysler (FCAU) have started to rise markedly since then.
Many have postulated that there is a move underway from growth to value. We are definitely seeing it in this space and the conclusion is that Tesla is being sold and the others mentioned above are being purchased.
Tesla peaked on August 31 at $498.32 and closed yesterday at $410.36 down -17.65%. Meanwhile, General Motors is up 36.84% since the end of August and Ford is up 22.87%. Overseas Automotive Manufacturers see Toyota up 7.91%, Honda up 9.70% and Fiat Chrysler up 30.37%.
Our Erlanger Volume Swing (EVS) indicator sees General Motors, Ford, Toyota, Honda and Fiat Chrysler all under accumulation and positive scores. Meanwhile, Tesla’s EVS is under distribution and negative. Even more problematic, Tesla sees our Erlanger Short Intensity Rank at 2% and a short ratio at 0.75.
This means it will take the short less than a day to cover their shares. There are 21 institutional investors that own more than $1 billion of stock and Elon Musk who owns $14 billion of stock. When and if these holders begin to sell shares and there is no one short, we could see some serious downside action with $275 a natural level for the stock to fall to as the shift from growth to value continues in the auto patch.
Geoff Garbacz is the co-founder and one of two principals in Quantitative Partners, Inc. (QPI).
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