Tags: Reinhart | Rogoff | errors | conclusion

Reinhart, Rogoff Acknowledge Errors in their Study, But Say Conclusion Holds

By    |   Thursday, 09 May 2013 11:40 AM EDT

Harvard economists Carmen Reinhart and Kenneth Rogoff have released a formal correction of some figures in a famous 2010 study they published about government debt and economic growth.

But they say that the conclusion of their study remains correct, the Financial Times reports. When the ratio of government debt to gross domestic product (GDP) reaches 90 percent, growth slumps big-time — to the tune of a median 1 percentage point, Reinhart and Rogoff argue.

"The point is whichever way you slice it, you have lower growth rates by about 1 percentage point," Reinhart said, according to the Times.

Editor's Note:
Economist Warns: 50% Unemployment, 100% Inflation Possible

The error was in growth rates for 1946 to 2009 and was originally discovered by a trio of University of Massachusetts economists. The mistake stemmed from a spreadsheet error.

The Reinhart-Rogoff study was cited prominently in defense of fiscal austerity for Europe in 2010.

Other studies, including ones from the International Monetary Fund and Bank for International Settlements, also showed that high debt levels are associated with slower growth.

But the criticism of Reinhart and Rogoff raised doubts that growth suddenly slows when government debt reaches 90 percent of GDP, according to the Times.

So how to prevent a similar mishap in the future?

"There’s only one reliable way to verify empirical findings: Try to replicate them," University of Michigan economists Justin Wolfers and Betsey Stevenson write in an article for Bloomberg.

"In the narrowest terms, this can mean taking the author’s data and checking their spreadsheets. ... At a broader level, replication can mean collecting new data, assessing their reliability and using them to subject a finding to fresh scrutiny."

Editor's Note: Economist Warns: 50% Unemployment, 100% Inflation Possible

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Economy
Harvard economists Carmen Reinhart and Kenneth Rogoff have released a formal correction of some figures in a famous 2010 study they published about government debt and economic growth.
Reinhart,Rogoff,errors,conclusion
286
2013-40-09
Thursday, 09 May 2013 11:40 AM
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