The suddenness and speed of the surge by the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria (ISIS) took all by surprise. Yet this al-Qaida splinter group now threatens to run from Iraq and Syria in to Jordan, Lebanon and Turkey. Why was this threat not recognized sooner? Were Western intelligence authorities asleep on the job?

A secret inquest has been ordered by the British government. “The Prime Minister was furious. He is ultimately in charge of British intelligence services and believes he was let down,” says a Foreign Office official. “We were told that the threat from ISIS was overblown and passing a few months ago. Now look where we are!”

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