Russian President Vladimir Putin's plans for winter warfare may be losing a key ally: Jack Frost.
Putin has been counting on Ukraine's typically harsh winters to aid in Russia's freeze-out of the country he invaded in late February. But projections are for a mild winter this year, Newsweek reports.
Putin had expected to make quick work of subduing Ukraine, a former member of the Soviet Union, thinking the capital city of Kyiv would fall within days of the invasion and the Kremlin would install a puppet government. Instead, eight months later Russian troops have been turned back, losing territory gained, and Russia has become a pariah on the world stage with images of war crimes rallying the West to back Ukraine with funding and weapons.
Putin had hoped to regain the upper hand, cutting off energy supplies as cold weather hit, demoralizing Ukrainians and taking back lost territory.
Winter still will be cold in spite of the mild predictions, Newsweek reported. And it could be warmer early and get cold later.
Still, Ukrainians have proved they are hard to demoralize, war watchers told Newsweek.
"Is damage on Ukrainian infrastructure significant enough to create challenges to heating and water supply and electricity? Yes," Dani Belo, assistant professor of international relations at Webster University, told Newsweek. "Russia's air operation against Ukraine is continuing. The question becomes: Is Russia going to succeed in compelling Ukraine to retreat? The answer is no, regardless of the severity of the winter."
Civilians will have to struggle with cold temperatures regardless, Matei Georgescu, the director at the Urban Climate Research Center at Arizona State University, told Newsweek.
"The reality of the situation is there will be a decrease in the amount of sunlight. It will get considerably colder," Georgescu said. "Perhaps there won't be long bouts of brutally cold, sub-20-degree Fahrenheit weather, but this doesn't change anything from the civilian perspective."
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