Nearly half (46%) of top foreign policy experts expect Russia to either become a failed state or break up within the next decade, according to a new survey released by the Atlantic Council think tank.
The study also showed that 21% of the experts consider Russia the most likely nation to become a failed state by 2033, more than twice higher than the next most common choice, Afghanistan (10%).
In addition, 40% of respondents expect Russia to break up internally within 10 years due to revolution, civil war, political disintegration, or some other reason.
European experts are particularly pessimistic about the same scenario, with 49% expecting it, while only 36% of American experts see it as likely.
For the survey, the Atlantic Council spoke with 167 experts, from academic, non-profit, governmental, and consultancy backgrounds.
Western officials are convinced that Russian President Vladimir Putin has been weakened by the war in Ukraine, with the Pentagon calling it a "massive strategic failure," according to the Business Insider.
A British government source told The Times of London that Moscow, due to the war, could need up to three decades to rebuild the nation's economic and military strength.
"Ukraine clearly highlights the possibility of internal problems for Russia, and the possibility that the war itself might have boomerang effects for not only its leadership but for the country as a whole," Atlantic Council deputy director of foresight Peter Engelke told The Financial Times.
The experts surveyed also expect other major global developments, with 70% agreeing with a statement that China could invade Taiwan within the next decade.
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