North Korean dictator Kim Jong Un on Saturday ordered an “exponential” expansion of his country’s nuclear arsenal, leading an analyst at a South Korean think tank to believe the Communist nation will conduct a nuclear test no later than Feb. 16.

Cheong Seong-chang, a senior analyst on North Korea at the Sejong Institute in Seoul, told The Korea Times on Monday the possible dates for a nuclear test would be Jan. 8, Kim’s birthday, Feb. 8, the 75^th anniversary of the founding of the Korean People’s Army, or Feb. 16, the 82^nd anniversary of the birthday of Kim’s father, Kim Jong Il, who died in 2011.

"Compared with Kim's previous New Year's remarks, which highlighted the country's economic growth, he emphasized strengthening the military and nuclear weapons this time,” Cheong said. “A nuclear test is expected soon to back up his message."

North Korea made a record number of missile tests in 2022, with at least 95 ballistic and other missile launches, according to The New York Times, all in defiance of United Nations Security Council resolutions. The country last tested a nuclear device in 2017.

On Sunday, North Korea reportedly made its first test launch of the new year, using a 600mm super large-caliber multiple launch rocket system, capable of firing tactical nuclear warheads across South Korea.

“If the past is any guide, North Korea conducted nuclear tests on or just prior to politically meaningful days," Cheong said. "If the North does not conduct a test in January or February, it could be delayed to July 27, the anniversary of the Korean War armistice signing, which is called 'The Day of Victory in the Great Fatherland Liberation War' in North Korea, or later."

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