A Chinese invasion of Taiwan in 2026 would result in thousands of Chinese, U.S., Taiwanese, and Japanese casualties, and it would probably not result in a victory for Beijing, according to a prominent independent Washington think tank.

The Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) conducted war-game simulations of a possible conflict, CNN reported, and in most scenarios, the U.S. Navy lost two aircraft carriers and 10 to 20 large-surface combatants. Approximately 3,200 U.S. troops would be killed in three weeks of combat, nearly half of what the U.S. lost in two decades of combat in Iraq and Afghanistan, according to the think tank.

"China also suffers heavily. Its navy is in shambles, the core of its amphibious forces is broken, and tens of thousands of soldiers are prisoners of war," it said. The report estimated China would suffer about 10,000 troops killed and lose 155 combat aircraft and 138 major ships.

"While Taiwan's military is unbroken, it is severely degraded and left to defend a damaged economy on an island without electricity and basic services," the report. The island's army would suffer about 3,500 casualties, and all 26 destroyers and frigates in its navy will be sunk, the report said.

Japan is likely to lose more than 100 combat aircraft and 26 warships, while U.S. military bases on its home territory come under Chinese attack, the report found.

CSIS said it did not want its report to imply a war over Taiwan "is inevitable or even probable."

China claims Taiwan as its sovereign territory. The island of Taiwan has a population of 24 million people and is democratic and prosperous.

Beijing has stepped up aggressive military pressure tactics on the island, sending fighter jets across the median line of the Taiwan Strait, the body of water separating Taiwan and China and into the island's air defense identification zone — a buffer of airspace commonly referred to as an ADIZ.

Speaking about Taiwan at the 20th Chinese Communist Party Congress in October, Chinese leader Xi Jinping said China would "strive for peaceful reunification. We will never promise to renounce the use of force, and we reserve the option of taking all measures necessary."

The Biden administration said Washington will provide the island with the means to defend itself without committing U.S. troops to that defense.

Dan Grazier, a senior defense policy fellow at the Project on Government Oversight (POGO), said an outright Chinese invasion of Taiwan is unlikely, CNN reported. It would immediately disrupt the imports and exports of food and fuel, which the Chinese economy relies on, Grazier told CNN. 

"The Chinese are going to do everything they can in my estimation to avoid a military conflict with anybody," Grazier said. To challenge the U.S. for global dominance, China will use industrial and economic power instead of military force, Grazier said.

President Joe Biden has said repeatedly that U.S. military personnel would defend Taiwan if the Chinese military invaded, even as the Pentagon has insisted there is no change in Washington's "One-China" policy.

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