Scotland will probably reject independence in next week’s referendum, according to gamblers placing bets at Betfair Group Plc, a London-based online betting company.

Wagers show an 80 percent chance of a no vote, with a 20 percent probability of Scots backing independence in the Sept. 18 vote, Betfair said. Some 4 million pounds ($6.5 million) has been wagered on a no vote, with 1 million pounds on a yes vote, the betting exchange said.

“Whilst a high number of smaller individual bets have come on yes in recent weeks, the big money trades continue to go on no, fueled by significant bets from south of the border,” Betfair said in a e-mail statement today. “London-based customers have placed bets as high as 19,000 pounds and 22,000 pounds on no in recent days, just after Scottish opinion polls indicated a big swing to yes.”

Earlier this week, William Hill Plc and Ladbrokes Plc, the two largest British bookmakers, cut the odds for Scotland voting for independence after opinion polls showed the two campaigns were neck and neck. Some 78 percent of bets from Scottish customers favored a yes vote, Betfair said.

“The trends amongst Scottish customers are interesting, but accuracy can also come from a greater degree of detachment,” said James Midmer, a Betfair spokesman.

A poll by Survation for the Daily Record newspaper in Glasgow released yesterday put the No lead at six percentage points when excluding undecided voters, with 47 percent support for the Yes campaign and 53 percent opposed to independence.

Odds of 2/9 from Irish bookmaker Paddy Power Plc also show a no vote is still favored, meaning a 9 pound wager returns just 2 pounds profit, compared with odds of 3-1 for a yes vote.