A large cross section of the world's top economists predict the U.S. economy will fall into a recession next year, according to one survey.
The survey, conducted by the Financial Times alongside the University of Chicago's Booth School of Business, indicates that 68% of the 49 economists surveyed believe a recession will occur in the U.S. in 2023.
The survey mentions that 40% of the economists believe the National Bureau of Economic Research will call a recession in the first half of next year, with 30% saying a recession will be called in the second half. Only 2% said one would occur this year, and 30% said one would happen in 2024.
The Federal Reserve, the Washington Examiner reports, is trying to drive down inflation. This comes in the face of the highest inflation rates consumers have experienced since the 1980s. So far, the Fed has done two rate increases for a combined 75 basis points, and it is ready to raise rates another half-percentage point on Wednesday, increasing the target rate increase to 1.25% after months of sitting at near-zero levels.
''The median monthly payment of a 30-year mortgage is up 56% year-over-year,'' TKer editor Sam Ro tweeted, citing a graph from Goldman Sachs.
And according to Alexander Hermann, a senior research analyst at the Joint Center for Housing Studies of Harvard University, ''housing production usually softened before previous recessions even began. Indeed, housing,'' Hermann wrote in a Market Watch report, ''is often thought of as a leading indicator of economic activity.'' In other words, housing unaffordability is often a strong indicator of recession.
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