Central US May Stay Warmer Than Normal Through November

The central United States may be warmer than normal through the end of November, although forecasters are split over what sort of temperatures will prevail in the Northeast as the month ends.

MDA EarthSat Weather also predicts that temperatures in the Northeast will remain 3 to 4 degrees Fahrenheit higher than normal through Nov. 28. Matt Rogers, president of Commodity Weather Group LLC, forecasts more seasonal weather.

Both forecasters say the central United States will remain at least 3 to 8 degrees above normal through Nov. 28. Rogers and MDA are split about the details of how far north and east that warmer air will spread.

“While the pattern is not completely locked on the warm side, the warmer events tend to last longer and are stronger for the eastern two-thirds over the next two weeks,” Rogers said in a note to clients today from his office in Bethesda, Md.

Traders use long-range temperature predictions to gauge energy use and market fluctuations. Hot or cold weather can increase demand for heating and cooling, and power plants use about 30 percent of the nation’s gas supplies, according to Energy Department data.

Rogers’ 6- to 10-day forecast calls for the central United States and Canada to warm above normal. Temperatures in Chicago may be at least 5 degrees higher than average from Nov. 19 to Nov. 23.

MDA says the warm air won’t go as far north during that period. Temperatures in Canada, as well as Minnesota and Wisconsin, may be closer to normal, the forecaster said.

In its 11- to 15-day outlook, from Nov. 24 to Nov. 28, MDA predicts the continent will be warm from Hudson Bay in Canada through New England and from the Northeast and South to the Gulf Coast. The Southeast will have seasonal temperatures, MDA said.

Rogers' 11- to 15-day outlook calls for the warmest weather to be over the U.S. and Canadian Plains with the East Coast being seasonal.

The normal average temperature in New York City for Nov. 23 is about 46 degrees, according to MDA in Gaithersburg, Md. The normal average is about 43 in Boston, 37 in Chicago, 52 in Atlanta, 44 in Seattle, 44 in St. Louis, 60 in Houston, and 58 in Burbank, Calif.