With fears of recession rising, and growing uncertainty over the future of the economy, it seems that more and more people are looking towards gold and silver as safe haven assets. Both gold prices and silver prices have shot up recently, just in time for the holidays.
The big question most gold and silver owners have right now is whether or not these price increases are the start of the big breakout most people have hoped for and anticipated for years, or whether these price increases are still just little rumblings.
Gold Price Movements
2023 hasn’t been a great year for many assets, with many markets seemingly stumbling along and far from recouping last year’s losses. Gold showed some promise early on, stumbled through mid-year, and now is starting to pick up again.
Analysts such as those at Goldman Sachs, who just recently upgraded their 12-month gold price outlook from $2,000 to $2,050 an ounce, may have to revise that estimate yet again, as gold’s recent price increases have pushed it to within $40 of its all-time highs.
The fact that gold is doing this at a time when stock markets are still relatively high is somewhat unique and unexpected. In the early stages of the 2008 recession, for instance, gold began to climb while stock markets fell, which is the more normally expected behavior.
Still, for gold owners and would-be gold owners, high prices and a bullish outlook for the future gold price are a cause for celebration. And if the US economy does fall into a recession, and markets crash, the gold price could push even higher.
Analysts at Societe Generale expect gold to hit $2,200 next year which, given gold’s current price performance, doesn’t seem like it should be hard to achieve.
Will Silver Catch Up?
While gold gets all the headlines, silver often remains in the shadows. But the white metal hasn’t exactly been slacking, hitting $25 an ounce recently.
Still, silver’s performance has been a little disappointing, at least for silver bulls. Given gold’s push towards all-time highs, why hasn’t silver done the same thing?
That’s a tough question to answer, as the gold to silver ratio has, except during silver’s amazing run in 2011, been quite elevated for over a decade.
The silver lining to that, however, is that during times when silver performs really well, the gold silver ratio declines as a result of rising silver prices. And if the US economy falls into recession within the next year, there could be a good chance that silver prices could rise significantly.
During the 1970s stagflation, when both gold and silver prices were rising at 30% annualized rates, the gold silver ratio dropped as the silver price took off. And a similar thing happened in the post-2008 precious metals bull market, as silver came close to setting an all-time high price in 2011.
If a recession ends up materializing next year or in the coming years, one would certainly hope that silver would repeat the kind of performance we saw from it in the 1970s and post-2008. And hopes for that kind of repeat could be playing in to the increased investment demand for silver today.
The Future of Gold and Silver
Just because the outlook for gold and silver looks bright right now doesn’t mean that everything is necessarily going to be rosy, however. In 2008 both gold and silver performed strongly to start the year, but saw losses as the year progressed.
That’s because both gold and silver are highly liquid assets, and can be a source of quick cash for those who need it. In 2008, as financial conditions deteriorated, gold and silver assets were often sold to drum up cash for those who needed it, resulting in lower prices.
But both gold and silver rebounded after that, with gold nearly tripling from its 2008 lows and silver more than quintupling from its 2008 lows by 2011. So that’s something to keep in mind when it comes to buying gold and silver.
Even a bullish outlook for the future doesn’t mean that silver and gold are necessarily going to keep rising straight upward. But as with many other assets, sticking with them despite temporary setbacks can often be the way to ensure that you benefit from future price growth.
If you're looking to buy gold and silver to help protect your financial well-being in the face of recession, inflation, or other economic turmoil, it’s important to work with knowledgeable and respected partners. With over a decade of experience, over $2 billion in precious metals placements, and over 5,000 5-star reviews, Goldco can be that partner.
We’ve helped thousands of our customers benefit from owning gold and silver, whether they’re looking to buy gold coins directly with cash to store at home, or looking to protect their retirement savings with a gold or silver IRA.
With so many options to choose from, we understand that the gold-buying process can seem daunting, especially if you’re a first-time gold or silver buyer. And that’s why we take our commitment to quality products and exceptional service so seriously.
At Goldco, we want to bring the benefits of owning gold and silver to as many customers as possible. And that’s why we want our customers to feel satisfied with their purchases of gold and silver.
That’s why we offer things like free silver on qualified purchases, or a buy-back program to purchase your metals from you if your circumstances change. Ask your Goldco representative for more information about these and other offers.
Our goal at Goldco is to help Americans achieve financial security by providing effective solutions that can help protect their wealth. And we believe that owning precious metals like gold and silver can be one way of doing that.
If you want to learn more about how you can help protect your financial well-being with gold and silver, call Goldco today.
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Trevor Gerszt is the founder and CEO of Goldco, a precious metals dealer in Los Angeles. For more than 20 years, Trevor has sought out ways to help people build long-term wealth through the security and stability of precious metals and other alternative assets. Goldco is A+ Rated by the Better Business Bureau, a 5-Time INC 500 Winner and has countless 5-Star Reviews for its quality customer service, dependability and strong reputation.
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