Many Wall Street executives have reservations about backing Democrat presidential candidate Vice President Kamala Harris, for fear she will lean too far left.
While multiple Wall Street heavy-hitters including Bill Ackman, John Paulson and George Soros have backed a candidate, many other senior executives are still weighing the economic policies central to the closely fought race and the ramifications for legal and democratic institutions, according to conversations with two dozen executives in recent weeks.
On the other hand, Republican candidate and former President Donald Trump has a solid track record implementing Wall Street-friendly measures. For her part, Harris remains a big unknown, Wall Street investment bankers said. Many worry the Vice President will continue Biden's regulatory crackdown on lucrative Wall Street businesses.
Among the executives were Republican and Democrat supporters, including a handful who are publicly backing Trump or Harris, and others with no obvious partisan affiliation.
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"Most expect Trump to continue where he left off, which is certainly more populist, protectionist and aggressively deregulatory," said Bruce Mehlman, partner at bipartisan lobbying firm Mehlman Consulting with clients in all sectors.
"But they're eager to better understand who Harris is and what she believes," Mehlman said, adding it did not appear that Harris' Wednesday economic speech had offered more insight for Wall Street firms.
As with his first presidency, Trump is promising to cut taxes and regulations, but most executives said the benefits could be erased by his planned import tariffs which could spark inflation, while tax cuts could widen the U.S. deficit. Trump ramped up his planned tariffs in comments this week.
Karoline Leavitt, Trump campaign National Press Secretary, said in a statement that Wall Street investors want Trump to win because they remember that his policies "fueled growth, drove down inflation, and kept more money in everyone's pockets."
Billionaire investor and Trump backer Paulson told Reuters on the sidelines of a September New York event at which Trump outlined his economic plan that tariffs would boost revenues, helping to reduce the deficit.
Harris' plan, which analysts predict would be better for the economy, calls for hiking taxes, likely denting company earnings and stocks but partly offsetting an expected widening of the deficit. She has said little on financial policy but has touted her tough stance on banks as a former prosecutor and said she will continue Biden's assault on hidden bank fees.
For many firms, a Harris White House and Republican Senate, which would block tax increases and force Harris to pick moderates for top jobs, is the best-case scenario.
So far, donors tied to the securities and investment sectors have given $8.7 million to the Biden/Harris campaign versus about $3 million to Trump, data from nonpartisan donations tracker OpenSecrets as of Aug. 21 shows.
Those contributions, capped in the thousands of dollars, come from individuals and political action committees (PACs) and are not comprehensive because there are several other ways to route cash to support candidates.
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Trump's appointment of Cantor Fitzgerald CEO Howard Lutnick as co-chair of his transition team may be a good sign, some said. Lutnick is tapping his Wall Street network to staff a potential second Trump administration.
Lindsey Johnson, CEO of the Consumer Bankers Association, said Trump can "draw from a deep well of people that were in the Administration last time that have great experience in the financial industry."
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