My Bet Is That Republicans Keep the House

“You can’t always get what you want,” wails Mick Jagger and the Rolling Stones. How true. It’s the 2018 midterms, in the era of Trump, and most people are not going to get what they want.

It’s late October and I’d rather put my picks out there now. Anyone can wait until after Election Day and then rationalize what happened. Since I’m writing this before the election and you’re reading it after, you get to point out the flaws in my logic. You know where to find me.

It looked like a “Blue Wave.” All the elements were there; two years of sustained resistance, great enthusiasm, lots of new registrations, fully on board media and gonzo polls. My friends would look at all of this and tell me their fears. I would tell them: “I’ll tell you when to worry. And if that’s not good enough, turn off the television.” And now they’re a whole lot less worried. Why? Because Republicans have a secret weapon: Democrats. I didn’t know how or when. But I knew that when the news was the darkest the Democrats would shine the light. And they did.

Let’s start off with ancient history, before Kavanaugh. Judge Kavanaugh is the ultimate Boy Scout. Literally. He’s cleaner than clean, smarter than smart and a slam dunk nominee. It was all set. The Judge becomes a Justice and the “Blue Wave” gives the Democrats both the House and the Senate. Who wouldn’t take that deal? The Democrats, that’s who. So they went for the whole enchilada: the House, the Senate, and the Supreme Court. But then we entered modern history, 2018 AD (after Dianne Feinstein). And here’s what happened: Midterm elections are more local than Presidentials. People look at their candidates and say to themselves: “She seems like a responsible woman. Maybe I’ll vote for her.” Or they think: “He’s a veteran, a family man and a good speaker. Maybe I’ll vote for him.” And the “Blue Wave” of enthusiasm would have carried the day. But, no. The Democrats changed everybody’s thinking. Now it became: “She seems like a nice, responsible woman. But so did Dianne Feinstein once upon a time. If I vote for this woman she will never cast a single vote based on decency, civility or integrity. She’s Dianne Feinstein, Nancy Pelosi, and Chuck Schumer; all day every day. I’ll pass.” And the Republicans thought: “OMG, what have they become; every one of them. I need to saddle up and cast my vote.” And all of a sudden an “all politics is local” midterm became pro wrestling, coast to coast and border to border. And all of those safe Democratic incumbents (like you, McCaskill) and attractive Democratic challengers (Beto) were morphed into Joe McCarthy. The whole country asked: “Have you no shame?” And nobody asked it better than Lindsey Graham, a former Never-Trumper. And that’s how the Republicans got fifty-five Senators.

But the House, that’s solid. The pollsters already have enough “safe” Democratic seats to give Nancy Pelosi the gavel. But who are you going to believe, the always wrong pollsters or your own eyes? And what do you see? You see a two mile long line in Las Vegas to get into a Trump rally, a twenty-four hour wait in Houston, a 4 percent economy, improved Trump approval numbers, and an NBC poll saying that the battleground Congressional districts are moving Red. But that’s not the biggest thing you see. You see the Caravan; the ten thousand Central Americans invading our country; expecting to come, get processed, get held for twenty days and get lost forever (or until a Democratic president gives them their voter’s card. Whichever comes first.). And you see the Democrats not lifting a finger to defend the Homeland. My bet is that the Republicans keep the House, in a squeaker. It will be a couple of seats either way.

In closing, let me focus on three bellwether races: Senator Menendez in New Jersey, Congressman Mast in Florida, and Senator Stabenow in Michigan. If either party wins all three of these races you are watching a wave, Red or Blue. Like I said, you know where to find me.

Sid Dinerstein is a former chairman of the Palm Beach County Republican Party. He founded JBS Associates, a 600-person financial service company, and currently combines politics and business with Niger Innis in Inclusive Elections LLC, a firm that brings urban electorate voters to the GOP. He is the author of "Adults Only: For Those Who Love Their Country More Than Their Party." For more of his reports, Go Here Now.