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OPINION

Remember for Nov. '22: Pollsters Biased, Voters Shy

Remember for Nov. '22: Pollsters Biased, Voters Shy
(Walter Cicchetti/Dreamstime.com)

Sid Dinerstein By Monday, 10 October 2022 04:44 PM EDT Current | Bio | Archive

This has been the longest two political years of my lifetime.

But, finally, voting time is here. In other words, it’s our turn.

Every two years I do my prognosticating, usually in front of a live audience. I have two such dates later this month. I call it as I see it and I invite comments.

Next month will be my report card. Here goes.

Let’s start with the governors. Gov. Ron DeSantis, R-Fla.. is the chief executive of my home state. He is my personal favorite.

He’ll win  maybe by double digits. It’s a numbers game.

Four years ago DeSantis won by a recounted 30,000 votes in a state that had 200,000 more Democrats than Republicans. Now Florida has 300,000 more Republicans than Democrats, a net gain of 500,000 Republicans in four years.

Gov. DeSantis will bring the cabinet in with him, as well as increases in the Florida State House, Florida State Senate and congressional delegations.

Indeed, one congressional seat likely to go Red is the one abandoned by Democratic gubernatorial candidate, Charlie Crist.

At the other end of I-95 is New York. It’s a numbers game there as well.

Republican challenger Lee Zeldin will not unseat Governor Hochul.

Why?

Because Floridians cannot vote in New York.

Too many of Zeldin’s voters are now DeSantis’ voters.

California will be another Democratic sweep.

Gov. Gavin Newsom, D-Calif., and his cabinet, will run the table while refusing to hold a single debate. Life is good for California Democrats. Newsom for President is already up and running. Democrat Josh Shapiro will ride his 500,000-voter registration advantage to keep the Pennsylvania Statehouse Blue.

Likewise, Gretchen Whitmer in Michigan will be reelected.

Don’t ask me how.

Republicans win in Nevada and Texas. (Bye, bye Beto O'Rourke. You can start your presidential campaign early). Anti-Trump Republican Governor Brian Kemp retains his seat in Georgia. Stacey Abrams’ 15-minutes of fame is likely over.

The second most interesting governor’s race is in Oregon, where bright, young, Republican Christine Drazan is looking to pull the night’s biggest upset. Count me as a skeptic.

The Independent candidate is polling 19%.

On election night many of those voters will go home to the Democrats, ruining the potential upset. Sorry. But I saved the best for last. If you don’t know Kari Lake, you are way behind the political curve.

Kari will become Arizona’s governor and America’s darling.

She is a female DeSantis. Whip smart, attractive, articulate and a fierce defender of conservative values.

She’ll be a prospective vice-presidential name as soon as the votes are counted.

On to Congress.

Let’s start with my top line. I predict the Republicans will wind up with 53 U.S. Senate seats and pick up 25 U.S. House seats. Someone, please tell Speaker Nancy Pelosi.

Ambitious? Yes.

But the polls always overcount the Democrats. I don’t.

Let’s look at some of the high-profile races. Easy Republican wins include Sen. Marco Rubio, R-Fla. In the midwest, it's J.D. Vance in Ohio. Sen. Ron Johnson, R-Wis. retains his seat.

Hershel Walker will carry the ball across the goal line in the Georgia nail-biter.

Adam Laxalt wins handily in Nevada. And then there is the State of Washington.

Forever incumbent Democrat Patty Murray will bite the dust in the biggest upset of the night. Republican challenger Tiffany Smiley is on the move.

The Democrats are pulling out all the stops. Sen. Chuck Schumer, D-N.Y., sent $500,000 and Starbucks is doing the usual corporate shilling.

Here's the news flash. It won’t help.

In Washington, enough is enough. In neighboring Oregon, enough isn't quite enough. And, in what might be the most-watched Senate race in the country, we go back to Pennsylvania.

It’s bruising. It’s expensive. It’s sad. At the end of the day, Dr. Oz is shown to be no wizard, losing to soft-on-crime Lt. Governor John Fetterman.

That’s all I have. It’s not easy.

Pollsters are sometimes biased. Voters are sometimes shy.

And news breaks every 24 hours. Stay tuned for next month’s "How Did I Do?" post.

No hiding. I’ll call out every race I weighed in on; the good, the bad, and the ugly.

Sid Dinerstein is a former chairman of the Palm Beach County Republican Party. Read More — Here.

© 2024 Newsmax. All rights reserved.


SidDinerstein
It’s bruising. It’s expensive. It’s sad. At the end of the day, Dr. Oz is shown to be no wizard, losing to soft-on-crime Lt. Governor John Fetterman.
fetterman, kemp, newsom
706
2022-44-10
Monday, 10 October 2022 04:44 PM
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