A funny thing happened on the way to the Red Tsunami.
We got Hurricane Nicole instead.
I promised a review of my November election forecast.
Here it is, warts and all. Let’s start with the worst news, the top lines. I predicted 53 Republican senators and 25 additional Republican congressmen.
It ain’t gonna happen. When all is said and done it will be no more than 52 Republican senators and around 10 additional congressmen.
We should control the U.S. House and we might control the U.S. Senate.
Close, but no cigar.
As for my picks?
I made 16 specific picks. As of the time of this writing, 12 have been decided.
I got 11 of those 12 right. Not bad.
Let’s review, in order of how I picked them:
My first three picks were easy ones:
Gov. Ron DeSantis, R-Fla., reelected, as were Sen. Marco Rubio, R-Fla., and my congressman, Rep. Brian Mast, R-Fla.
Not only were those picks easy, they were early! No surprises there.
No doubt I will be writing about DeSantis often in the months ahead. Presidential politics beckons. Staying with the governors, for now, I was a solid "Yes" on New York Gov. Kathy Hochul’s reelection.
It was simple. Too many of Zeldin’s supporters had already voted — for DeSantis.
They moved.
Over a million of them relocated from New York to Florida in recent years.
Zeldin simply ran out of voters. DeSantis enjoyed the surplus.
As a consolation to my Florida Republican friends, I promised them that with Hochul as governor and Eric Adams as New York City mayor, Floridians stood to enjoy eight more years of rising property values.
The reason you didn’t hear about Gavin Newsom in California was because there was no doubt. I had him. I had Shapiro in Pennsylvania. Strong registration and high approval numbers wrote that story.
I had Whitmer in Michigan. I don’t know how she wins. She just does.
The last two governors are easy Republican reelects: Abbott in Texas and Kemp in Georgia. This way Beto O'Rourke and Stacey Abrams can get an early jump on their presidential campaigns.
They're entertaining.
On to my few remaining senatorial picks. I already mentioned Rubio in Florida.
The more difficult pick was Fetterman in Pennsylvania.
Carpetbagging is often a losing strategy.
It breeds great resentment from voters all across the political spectrum.
I had Vance in Ohio. I don’t know why people worried about this race. Ohio is like Florida.
It’s a former swing state and a current red state.
Uncalled races at this time include Sen. Laxalt in Nevada and Herschel Walker in Georgia. A runoff is set for Dec. 6, 2022 in the Peachtree State.
Governors races, at the time of this writing, in Oregon and Arizona, are uncalled.
Sen. Patty Murray, D-Wash., won, beating Tiffany Smiley.
Smiley was my underdog pick.
What does it all mean? Assuming the Republicans capture at least the House, the big meaning is the end of Biden’s Build Back Better (BBB) boondoggles.
We’re past the bottom, even if we’re still two years away from a real recovery.
The other big deals are the House committee hearings. Hunter Biden, come on down. From Hunter Biden to Jan . 6 — it’s our turn.
Let’s turn all the cards face up. Let’s see all the videos.
Let’s kick those like Rep. Adam Schiff, D-Calif., off committees. Let’s use the power of the purse to slash the federal budget and shrink the federal workforce.
Those are fights worth having.
And, finally, we need to briefly talk about presidential politics, 2024.
The biggest story that came out of Election Day is the potential Trump/DeSantis clash of the titans. Is it inevitable? Can it be friendly? Those are thoughts for a future column.
For the Democrats there are similar problems; a Biden second term comes to mind. Is there an early retirement in Biden’s future? And who is Plan B? Newsom? Michelle Obama? Hillary Clinton?
Many pundits make predictions. Some even write them down. But precious few come back after the elections to own up to their prognostications. I just did. See you next month.
Sid Dinerstein is a former chairman of the Palm Beach County Republican Party. Read More — Here.
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