Whatever side Virginians were on in the November race for governor, they almost surely got a jolt over the just-completed Trafalgar poll showing the race a virtual standoff.
According to Trafalgar, Democratic former Gov. Terry McAuliffe edges out Republican Glenn Youngkin by 47% to 45% among likely voters.
These figures were particularly surprising because, nearly four years after he left office under Virginia’s one-term law, McAuliffe is a familiar political figure in the Old Dominion State.
Besides having served as governor, McAuliffe, 64, is a former Democratic National Committee chairman and U.S. trade representative, and a close friend of Bill and Hillary Clinton.
In contrast, Youngkin, 54, a former managing director of the private equity firm The Carlyle Group, is a first-time candidate for office.
''We are in the middle of the dog days of summer, so I wouldn't give too much thought to any poll right now,'' Quentin Kidd, dean of the Christopher Newport University College of Social Sciences and a seasoned observer of Virginia politics, told Newsmax. ''Both campaigns are working to lay down markers that will establish the parameters of the fall sprint. Most voters are probably not paying too much attention.''
Bob Holsworth, dean of the L. Douglas Wilder School of Government and Public Affairs at Virginia Commonwealth University, agreed.
''Since Trafalgar didn’t release any cross tabs about the sample on its website — male/female, Democrats/Republicans/independents, race/ethnicity — I can’t say anything about the validity of the poll,'' Holsworth told us. ''And I tend to be suspicious of surveys that don’t tell us about the composition of the respondents.''
He added that this election could be decided by how much Donald Trump’s influence among Republicans has subsided since he left the presidency this year.
In Holsworth’s eyes, Trump ''has been a millstone around the neck of Virginia Republicans. They lost a governor’s race by 2 points in 2013 and a Senate race by less than 1 point in 2014. In 2017, however, they lost a governor’s race by 9, a Senate race by 16 in 2018, another by 12 in 2020, and gave up 21 seats in the House of Delegates in 2017 and 2019.''
He added that the Trafalgar poll ''implies the race will be more competitive with Trump out of the White House, but we will have to see other, more transparent polls to see if this is accurate.''
Mark Rozell, dean of the Schar School of Policy and Government at Virginia’s George Mason University, feels that ''all indicators point to a closely competitive race in Virginia this year.''
Rozell told us he was not surprised polls suggest the race is close ''because of the historical pattern of the president's party usually losing in the Virginia off-year election cycles. Add to that Youngkin's ability to spend an unprecedented amount in a Virginia gubernatorial election. He is all over television already, whereas McAuliffe is mostly doing digital ads.''
More importantly, he emphasized, ''it is early in the cycle, and Youngkin remains a blank slate to most Virginia voters. He has been very careful not to let anyone pin him down on policy, but that cannot go on much longer. He needs much more than his personal story to make his case to the voters as to why they should pick an untested outsider over a former governor.''
John Gizzi is chief political columnist and White House correspondent for Newsmax. For more of his reports, Go Here Now.
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