Reports Monday morning that Rep. Tom Suozzi will leave the U.S. House to run for governor of New York in 2022 were just the latest confirmation of what pols and the punditocracy concluded months ago: that Republicans are better-than-even money to recapture the House of Representatives after four years in the minority.
In entering a primary bout that includes not only incumbent Gov. Kathy Hochul but State Attorney General Letitia James and outgoing New York Mayor Bill de Blasio, three-termer Suozzi becomes the 18th Democrat to leave the House.
In contrast, only nine Republicans are retiring from the House or seeking another office.
"What happens to Suozzi’s seat, like every seat, is redistricting," said historian David Pietrusza, who knows all things New York. "And with Democrats in charge, it’s not good for Republicans."
But most Empire State observers agree that the 3rd Distict seat (Nassau County-Queens) that Suozzi first won in 2016 will probably survive the redistricting knife — albeit in some altered form.
George DeVolder-Santos, economist and son of Brazilian immigrants, carried the banners of the Republican and New York Conservative Parties in 2020 and drew 44% of the vote against Suozzi.
"George did well last time and he’s definitely running again," New York Conservative Party Chairman Gerard Kassar told Newsmax.
Among Democrats, the post-Suozzi picture is unclear at this time. Melanie D’Arrigo, community organizer and self-styled "progressive Democrat," took on Suozzi and drew an unimpressive 18% of the vote. Other Democrats, most of them local office-holders, are expected to emerge as prospective heirs to Suozzi.
Henry Olsen, senior fellow at the Center for Ethics and Public Policy, concluded that "the large number of Democratic House retirements is an excellent indication that many House Democrats think their chances of retaining control are bleak."
John Gizzi is chief political columnist and White House correspondent for Newsmax. For more of his reports, Go Here Now.
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