The recent — and somewhat surprising decision — of Republican Rep. Tom Reed to retire in 2024 may have a major impact on New York’s redistricted congressional map.
With six-termer Reed relinquishing the 23rd District, he may have secured the survival of conservative swashbuckler and fellow Republican Rep. Claudia Tenney from the redistricting knife that is firmly in Democrats' hands.
''The Reed retirement decision is likely good news for neighboring GOP Rep. Claudia Tenney,'' wrote veteran GOP consultant Jim Ellis in his much-read The Ellis Insight online newsletter.
The two Republican lawmakers have long been considered prime targets of Democrats, who have supermajorities in the state Assembly and Senate and thus a strong hand in the redistricting process.
The Empire State is poised to lose at least one of its 27 seats in the reapportionment process, the districts now held by Reed and Tenney ranking 27th and 26th respectively in population.
But Reed’s departure means, Ellis noted, ''The upstate map becomes much easier to draw in that his seat can be collapsed into hers, presenting Tenney with a larger but very likely more Republican district from which she could seek reelection.''
Tenney first won the 22nd District in 2016, but lost to Democrat Assemblyman Anthony Brindisi. It took more than three months to recount and certify Tenney as the winner of their rematch last year, with the New Hartford Republican clinging to a lead throughout the process and finally certified the winner by 106 votes out of more than 325,000 cast.
Under the likely scenario of redistricting, wrote historian David Pietrusza, ''There would have been a situation with more than one Republican House Member from upstate jammed into one new seat. Now we know that at least one of the Republicans not coming back is Tom Reed.''
John Gizzi is chief political columnist and White House correspondent for Newsmax. For more of his reports, Go Here Now.
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