A net loss of roughly 20,000 Democrats in Pennsylvania signals bad news for President Joe Biden ahead of next year’s election.
The Pennsylvania Department of State's voter registration data as of Dec. 18 showed that 35,589 registered Democrats switched their party affiliation to Republican this year, and another 20,908 former Dems now are unaffiliated.
That compares to 15,622 registered Republicans switching parties, and another 18,927 choosing to be unaffiliated, Newsweek reported.
That’s a net loss of 21,948 for Democrats — not a good sign considering Biden won Pennsylvania by about 80,000 votes in the 2020 election. Former President Donald Trump, the current front-runner for the Republican nomination, won it by less than 45,000 votes four years earlier.
"Current voter registration trends and polling in Pennsylvania should be setting off alarms for President Biden and Democrats at the state and national level, with pocketbook issues remaining the top concern of voters who overwhelmingly feel that things are headed in the wrong direction," Erik Telford, a senior vice president of public affairs at the Commonwealth Foundation, told Newsweek.
Allegheny (3,817 switched from Democrat to GOP), Bucks (1,131), and Westmoreland (1,169) counties, which were all instrumental to Biden's 2020 victory, saw the largest net losses for the Democratic Party.
"If I were involved in the Biden campaign, I'd be asking a lot of questions, and doing all in my power to reverse this trend," political consultant Jay Townsend told Newsweek. "Biden does not have to win every swing state, but he can ill afford to lose Pennsylvania. Every vote will matter."
Biden received more bad news Tuesday, when the latest DailyMail.com/J.L. Partners poll found that former President Donald Trump picked up independent voters and extended his lead to 4 points in the 2024 presidential election.
An Emerson College survey last month found that Trump holds a 4-point lead over Biden in the Keystone State.
A Commonwealth Foundation survey last week found that Biden’s job approval had sunk to 38% among Pennsylvania voters, while his disapproval rating reached 61%, its highest level in four polls this year.
That survey also found that Biden's approval among Democrats remains significantly higher than among Republicans (72% to 9%) in Pennsylvania, but that’s lower than the national average. A Gallup poll released Friday showed Biden with a 78% approval rating among Democrats nationally.
Pennsylvania likely will be a critical state in the 2024 presidential election.
Not only does it have 20 Electoral College votes — the fifth most of any state — only twice between 1932 and 1988 has a presidential candidate been able to win the White House without carrying Pennsylvania. No Democrat has been elected president without winning the state since 1948.
Charlie McCarthy ✉
Charlie McCarthy, a writer/editor at Newsmax, has nearly 40 years of experience covering news, sports, and politics.
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