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Tags: obama | romney | poll | swing | states

Quinnipiac: Obama Keeps Edge in Swing States of Fla., Pa., Ohio

By    |   Wednesday, 27 June 2012 07:00 AM EDT

President Barack Obama is faring considerably better in vital swing states that are likely to decide November’s election, than he is doing in the country as a whole, two polls released on Wednesday show.

And that is bad news for Republican challenger Mitt Romney, who needs to reverse Obama’s margins in those states if he is to be successful in his bid for the White House.

Both the Quinnipiac University and the NBC/Wall Street Journal surveys found that Obama’s leads are significant in the most important states.

Editor's Note: Will Obama be Defeated? Vote Here!

According to Quinnipiac, the president holds an edge over Romney in Pennsylvania, Ohio and Florida. Nobody has been elected president in half a century without winning at least two of those states, which combined make up slightly under a quarter of the total electoral college votes.

He is up by 9 percentage points in Ohio, 6 points in Pennsylvania and 4 points in Florida, according to the June 19-25 “swing-state survey.”

Obama has gained ground in Ohio and Florida while his lead in Pennsylvania diminished slightly, compared with a comparable Quinnipiac poll released on May 3.

A move by Obama to stop deportations of some illegal immigrants brought to the U.S. as children helped win over voters, said Peter Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute. The president holds almost a 2-1 lead among Hispanic voters in Florida, the poll found.

“If he can keep those leads in all three of these key swing states through Election Day, he would be virtually assured of re-election,” Brown said.

The Journal/NBC poll gave Romney equally bleak news as it showed that Obama’s average lead in 12 swing states was eight points — while it was only three points in the country as a whole.

The Journal said the reason for the disparity is likely the amount of ads the Obama campaign has aired in those states.

"There are two campaigns — the one being fought out in the press, and one in swing states," said Republican pollster Bill McInturff, who conducted the poll of 1,000 adults along with Democrat Peter Hart.

"We're seeing some indications that the advertising could be having an impact."

The revised deportation policy Obama announced June 15 and his June 22 address to the National Association of Latino Elected and Appointed Officials meeting in Lake Buena Vista, Fla.— boosted the president’s standing with Hispanics in that state, according to Quinnipiac poll data.

In a June 12-18 poll by Quinnipiac solely of Florida voters — in which Obama also led overall by 4 percentage points — the president had a 10-point edge over Romney among Hispanics surveyed, 49 percent to 39 percent. In the latest poll, Obama’s lead over Romney among this bloc has grown to 24 points, 56 percent to 32 percent.

Among all Florida voters in the new survey, 58 percent said they supported Obama’s immigration initiative, while 33 percent opposed it.

Voters in the other two states in the Quinnipiac poll were also supportive, backing the policy 52 percent to 38 percent in Ohio and 51 percent to 41 percent in Pennsylvania.

Editor's Note: Will Obama be Defeated? Vote Here!

In Ohio overall, Obama leads Romney 47 percent to 38 percent, the poll showed. In Pennsylvania, Obama leads 45 percent to 39 percent.

“Pennsylvania voters have no great love for President Barack Obama, but at this point they like Governor Mitt Romney less,” said Tim Malloy, assistant director of the Quinnipiac polling institute.

Quinnipiac surveyed 1,200 voters in Florida, 1,237 in Ohio and 1,252 in Pennsylvania.


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Wednesday, 27 June 2012 07:00 AM
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