Roll Call has downgraded the New Jersey Senate race from “Solid Democrat” to “Likely Democrat,” as incumbent Democratic Sen. Bob Menendez’ popularity slides.
On Thursday, Roll Call election analyst Nathan Gonzales changed the race from a “Solid Democrat” to a “Likely Democrat.” A new poll from Monmouth University, located in New Jersey, shows that Menendez holds a nine-point lead over Republican candidate Bob Hugin, but almost half of respondents reported holding a negative view of the incumbent. Menendez faced corruption charges brought by the Department of Justice, but the case never went to trial.
Monmouth University Poll Institute director Patrick Murray notes that Menendez’ favorability ratings are higher than President Donald Trump’s, who is viewed negatively by more than half of New Jersey voters, and that almost three-in-four voters said that Trump is a “very important” factor in their decision in the Senate race.
"If these poll results hold, the first person Bob Menendez should thank in his election night victory speech is Donald Trump,” Murray said.
“You’ve got to wonder if New Jersey voters look at corruption through a different lens than other voters," he continued. "But it’s worth pointing out that Republican House incumbents in upstate New York and southern California are currently under indictment and remain competitive in their re-election efforts. So perhaps the goalposts have been moved nationwide in recent years."
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