Quinnipiac Poll: Ernst Leads by 2 in Iowa

Republican State Sen. Joni Ernst has kept her lead in the latest Iowa Senate poll with 48 percent among likely voters while U.S. Rep. Bruce Braley, the Democrat, lags behind at 46 percent, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today.

Four percent remain undecided.

By comparison, an October 15 survey by the independent Quinnipiac group showed Sen. Ernst at 47 percent and Rep. Braley at 45 percent.
Independent voters are giving Ernst 47 percent to Braley’s 41 percent.

Republicans back Ernst 91 – 6 percent. Democrats go to Braley 93 – 4 percent.

In the reverse gender gap that marks this race, according to the poll, women back the Democratic man 53 to 40 percent, while men back the Republican woman 55 to 38 percent.

Braley leads 58 to 37 percent among those who already have voted.

With 12 days until Election Day, 93 percent of Iowa likely voters who name a Senate candidate say their mind is made up, while 7 percent say they might change their mind.

"The race to succeed U.S. Sen. Tom Harkin in Iowa could be headed for a photo finish, with State Sen. Joni Ernst on the plus side of a too-close-to-call matchup with U.S. Rep. Bruce Braley," said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac Poll.

"Throughout the campaign, Sen. Ernst has had an edge on likability. If she makes it across the finish line first that may be the key. Her campaign theme that she is the 'farm girl next door' who made good has taken her from unknown state legislator to a serious shot at the United States Senate."

"Rep. Braley has been selling his Washington experience. We'll see on November 4 whether that experience is such a valuable commodity with voters," Brown added.