The Washington Post
has rated the current likelihood of John Boehner being ousted from his powerful House Speaker post as "extremely low."
The newspaper did the math after reports surfaced that a gang of rebel conservatives were hoping to prevent him from leading the chamber for a third term.
Last year a dozen Republicans voted against the Ohio congressman becoming top dog in the House again, only six GOP members shy of leading to a re-vote that could have seen Boehner losing his job. And it could happen again, according to The Fix column in the Post.
Texas Rep. Louie Gohmert voted against Boehner
last year and plans to do so again, as will North Carolina Rep. Walter Jones, while Arizona Rep. Paul Gosar has declared that he will also vote against him.
But their votes, along with other conservatives, may not be enough to kick him to the curb during the election, which is expected to take place on November 10.
To be elected Speaker, a person who does not have to be a congressman or woman must receive a majority of votes from members who are present in the chamber. Boehner will need a total of 218 votes from Republican members to become Speaker again, on the assumption that no Democrats will vote for him.
If he doesn't get a majority, the chamber keeps voting until someone get a majority, the Post said. Theoretically then, Boehner could lose the first vote and then be elected during a later vote.
Boehner is said to be on the bubble because he can only rely on 217 votes after subtracting nine members who have made it clear that they will vote against him, plus the eight undecideds, consisting of six who voted against him last time and two others. A total of 234 Republicans minus 17 equals 217.
But the Post's Philip bump wrote, "Saying he could be on the bubble is a big 'could.' First of all, the composition of the next Congress will be different, with a few [or a lot] more Republicans [or Democrats]. If the GOP wins 10 new seats, which is what the Election Lab forecasts, Boehner will almost certainly be fine.
"Plus those six newcomers will have to put their money where their mouth is. It's one thing to say you oppose the Speaker when you're trying to prove to voters what an outsider you are. It's another thing entirely once you're inside. That goes double if Republicans are sitting on an expanded House majority come January 2015."
The Post plans to update the "likelihood" of Boehner being booted after the November elections.
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