A majority of likely Iowa voters back former President Donald Trump in a hypothetical 2024 presidential rematch against President Joe Biden, giving the America First president an 11-point edge on the White House, according to the latest Des Moines Register poll.
Just 40% of likely Iowa voters backed Biden, while 4% said they would vote for neither and another 5% remain undecided.
Trump won Iowa in 2020 by 8.2 points over Biden and 9.4 points over Hillary Clinton in 2016.
"Trump won Iowa convincingly in 2020, and that's reflected in these data," Selzer & Co. pollster J. Ann Selzer told the Register.
Independents are increasingly turning away from Biden amid rising inflation and vaccine mandates, and Trump has a 8-point edge in that demographic (45% to 37%). Both potential candidates remain strong among their party (Biden 95% and Trump 91%).
Trump has yet to announce a 2024 presidential campaign, suggesting he will make his decision official after the 2022 midterms due to "antiquated campaign finance laws."
Biden's most recent remarks on 2024 had him telling reporters, "my plan is to run for reelection, that's my expectation."
The real battle in Iowa might be a GOP primary, according to Selzer & Co. pollster J. Ann Selzer, who told the Register "it opens the door a bit for Iowa."
"If all you had in this poll was that Trump would defeat Joe Biden by 11 points, it might say everything is locked up," Selzer added.
There is still room for a GOP primary, which is big business in Iowa every four years.
"If I had a choice between Gov. [Ron] DeSantis or Donald Trump, that right there would be a hard decision for me," likely voter respondent Franklin Troy Hommer told the Register. "But if you're telling me that my two choices are Joe Biden or Donald Trump, I'm picking Donald Trump."
The forces of election past remain at play, including Democrats pursuing Jan. 6 protesters and investigations, while they try to subvert Republican legislature attempts to codify election law after processes were altered during the 2020 election cycle under the guise of COVID-19 safety protocols.
"Why aren't they investigating the people and states who cheated on the election causing the protest of Jan. 6?" Trump wrote in a statement from his Save America PAC on Sunday. "Why aren't they investigating the people who ruthlessly and violently burned down and took over Democrat-run cities, beating and murdering people along the way?
"Instead they are viciously investigating those who protested the Nov. 3 presidential election, the Crime of the Century. No investigations on election fraud, but if anybody was near the Capitol waving an American flag, they've had nothing but trouble.
"American Patriots are not going to allow this subversion of justice to continue, including the use of prosecutors, local, state, and federal, to torment and destroy innocent people. All this, while our country is going to hell!"
The Selzer & Co and Des Moines Register/Mediacom poll was conducted between Nov. 7-10, among 658 likely voters and has a margin of error of 3.8 percentage points.
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