A man who correctly predicted the past nine presidential elections – using a binary response to 13 key factors – told CNN that Democrats currently need to impeach President Donald Trump to be projected to win in 2020.
"Democrats are fundamentally wrong about the politics of impeachment and their prospects for victory in 2020," American University professor Alan Lichtman told CNN on Tuesday. "An impeachment and subsequent trial would cost the president a crucial fourth key – the scandal key – just as it cost Democrats that key in 2000.
"The indictment and trial also would expose him to dropping another key by encouraging a serious challenge to his re-nomination. Other potential negative keys include the emergence of a charismatic Democratic challenger, a significant third-party challenge, a foreign policy disaster, or an election-year recession.
"Without impeachment, however, Democratic prospects are grim."
Lichtman was one of the few who predicted Trump's 2020 victory, using a true or false response to the following 13 variables.
"Trump wins again in 2020 unless six of 13 key factors turn against him," he said. "I have no final verdict yet because much could change during the next year.
"Currently, the president is down only three keys: Republican losses in the midterm elections, the lack of a foreign policy success, and the president's limited appeal to voters."
From Lichtman's book "Predicting the Next President: The Keys to the White House 2016," per reports, the 13 factors are:
- Party mandate: Does incumbent hold the House majority?
- Contest: Is the incumbent facing a serious test?
- Incumbency: Is the president up for re-election?
- Third party: Is there a third-party challenge?
- Short-term economy: Is there a recession?
- Long-term economy: "Real per capita economic growth during the term equals or exceeds mean growth during the previous two terms," per the report.
- Policy change: Is the incumbent administration making major national policy changes?
- Social unrest: Is there sustained social unrest?
- Scandal: Is the incumbent facing major scandal?
- Foreign/military failure: Is there failure in foreign or military affairs?
- Foreign/military success: Is there major success in foreign or military affairs?
- Incumbent charisma: Is incumbent a charismatic leader?
- Challenger charisma: Is the challenger a charismatic leader?
Lichtman's current review of the above, led to his suggestion of impeachment to win in 2020, despite House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, D-Calif., claiming Trump and the White House are ostensibly "begging" for impeachment as a polarizing political issue for re-election, CNN reported.
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