A top political science analyst says it is possible Republicans will lose up to 38 seats on Capitol Hill as well as their grip on the House majority.
"If Trump's popularity and the economy continue at their current pace, Republicans should be expecting a major loss in the House and a possible chance of losing the Senate," Eric Smith, a professor of political science at the University of California, Santa Barbara, writes in the Washington Post.
Smith says he used a forecasting model based on changes in real gross national product in the first and second quarters of the election year, the president’s approval rating in Gallup polls as of July of the election year, and whether it is a presidential or midterm year.
"The model predicts that the Republicans will lose 38 seats in the House, a number that would give the Democrats a majority in the next Congress," he writes.
"But it's important to note that simple models such as this one produce forecasts with real uncertainty. In this case, you can think of the forecast as having a 'margin of error' of 38 seats."
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