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GenForward Survey: Black Support for Biden Slipping

By Peter Malbin | Tuesday, 12 December 2023 11:26 AM EST

President Joe Biden is losing support among Black Americans, one of his strongest constituencies, who see rising prices as the most important political issue.

In the GenForward survey released Tuesday, and reported by Politico, 17% of Black Americans would vote for former President Donald Trump over Biden.

During the 2020 presidential election, AP VoteCast found that Trump won 8% of Black voters, while 92% voted for Biden.

Black women still support Biden at higher rates than Black men, noted Cathy Cohen, the founder and director of the GenForward project and a University of Chicago political science professor.

In the survey, 20% of Black and Latino respondents said they would not vote if the election were held today.

"For younger people, it is the threat of a third-party candidate or staying at home," that should be the real fear for Democrats, Cohen said.

The sagging support for Biden could also present an opportunity for Cornel West, who is running as an independent and could be a spoiler for Democrats in a close contest, The Wall Street Journal reported. West, who is Black, has criticized Biden and accused him of overlooking the needs of poor and working people, the newspaper added.

"Some Black Americans have faced higher inflation than the national average, likely because they spend a greater share of their income on items like transportation and housing that have seen especially steep price increases, according to research last year from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York," The Wall Street Journal reported.

In the GenForward survey, concerns over inflation by far outpaced all other issues for respondents across all racial groups, with gun control and immigration lagging far behind.

Overall, Biden's approval rating in this survey was 38%. Breaking it down by race, 50% of Black people, 34% of Latinos, 37% of AAPI, and 36% of white respondents viewed Biden favorably.

According to the survey, 46% of respondents across all racial groups said they would back Biden if the election were held today, compared with 57% of Asian American and Pacific Islanders. Latino and white respondents were nearly identical with 42% and 44%, respectively, saying they would back Biden.

The Journal noted that Biden is trying to retain Black support by saying he appointed the first Black woman to the Supreme Court. Vice President Kamala Harris, meanwhile, is reaching out to Black colleges and groups, and has been a leading advocate for abortion access.

The GenForward survey is housed at the University of Chicago and was conducted with 3,448 eligible voters, including large oversamples with voters of color, from Nov. 8-30 in all 50 states and the District of Columbia.

The survey — which was conducted over the internet with a mix of respondents who were randomly selected to join a panel and those who opted-in to participate in the survey — has a margin of error of plus/minus 3 points.