Skip to main content
Tags: fivethirtyeight | donald trump | kamala harris

FiveThirtyEight: Trump Odds of Winning on Upswing

By    |   Thursday, 10 October 2024 05:54 PM EDT

Former President Donald Trump's chances of winning the 2024 presidential election have steadily improved since last month, according to FiveThirtyEight's probability calculations.

The political forecasting website, which is owned by ABC News, has regularly released the odds for Trump or Vice President Kamala Harris winning the election. Trump started with a higher chance of winning at 53% to Harris' 47% at the end of July, just after Harris replaced President Joe Biden at the top of the Democrat ticket.

Harris saw a large boost after officially becoming the Democrat nominee for president, reaching a high of 64% probability to win in September, but the likelihood of her winning has fallen steadily since then while Trump's has continuously increased. Harris went from a 64% chance in September to a 55% chance just one week later, and that chance later fell to 52% earlier this week.

Trump's chances of winning fell to a low of 36% in September but steadily rose, hitting 45% before the end of the month and 47% earlier this week.

FiveThirtyEight also predicted that Trump will win Florida but that the battleground states of Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Arizona, Georgia, and North Carolina could go either way.

Theodore Bunker

Theodore Bunker, a Newsmax writer, has more than a decade covering news, media, and politics.

© 2024 Newsmax. All rights reserved.


Politics
Former President Donald Trump's chances of winning the 2024 presidential election have steadily improved since last month, according to FiveThirtyEight's probability calculations.
fivethirtyeight, donald trump, kamala harris
198
2024-54-10
Thursday, 10 October 2024 05:54 PM
Newsmax Media, Inc.

Sign up for Newsmax’s Daily Newsletter

Receive breaking news and original analysis - sent right to your inbox.

(Optional for Local News)
Privacy: We never share your email address.
Join the Newsmax Community
Read and Post Comments
Please review Community Guidelines before posting a comment.
 
TOP

Interest-Based Advertising | Do not sell or share my personal information

Newsmax, Moneynews, Newsmax Health, and Independent. American. are registered trademarks of Newsmax Media, Inc. Newsmax TV, and Newsmax World are trademarks of Newsmax Media, Inc.

NEWSMAX.COM
America's News Page
© Newsmax Media, Inc.
All Rights Reserved
Download the Newsmax App
NEWSMAX.COM
America's News Page
© Newsmax Media, Inc.
All Rights Reserved