The key voting blocs that helped put President Donald Trump in the White House are on the decline, which could hinder his chances of winning a second term, NBC News reports.
A new interactive collaboration by NBC News and The Cook Political Report indicates that if the same amount of people turn out to vote in 2020 that did in 2016 and the same rates of support among different groups are applied to what the current demographics of the country are, Trump would lose Florida, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.
If that scenario plays out, the tool estimates Trump would lose the popular vote by about four points, which is about double his 2016 deficit of 2.9 million votes. It also indicates that the margins would be just enough for former Vice President Joe Biden to win.
In 2016, Trump was able to lose the popular vote and still win because the geographic vote distribution he obtained allowed him to win the Electoral College votes necessary to become president.
But NBC News reports the country is more diverse than it was 2016. The demographic group that helped Trump clinch the win in 2016 was white voters without four-year college degrees. Many of them lived in the upper Midwest. According to NBC News, there are less non-college whites now than there were four years ago. In 2020, non-college whites make up about 43% of the country’s adult citizens, which is down from 46% in 2016.
Trump may also run into trouble with white voters that do have a four-year degree. NBC News reports they can be classified as their own voting bloc, which trends Democrat, and is growing in size. In 2016, white voters who had four-year degrees made up 24% of the adult citizens in the country. Now, they are up to 25%.
There is also a boost in Black Americans, Latinos, and Asians, who typically vote Democrat, according to the tool. They make up 32% of the voting population, which is an increase from 30% in 2016.
In order to capture a win, the tool shows that Trump will need to boost his support among non-college white voters by about 5 points from 55% to 60% in order to offset the declining amount of people that fall into that category of voters.
According to NBC News, Trump has the ability to garner more support in Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, where 4.9 million eligible non-college whites didn't cast ballots in 2016.
But recent polling indicates Biden is winning over more non-college whites than Hillary Clinton did in 2016. A recent NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll shows Biden losing them by 23 points, compared to Clinton who lost the demographic by 37 points.
The tool also shows that age could help sway the election. There are more voters who are 65 and older now because baby boomers have shifted into that demographic. The older voters narrowly supported Trump in 2016. But polls show Biden is winning over more older voters than Clinton did in 2016.
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