The Cook Political Report on Tuesday changed its ratings for Ohio and Iowa in regards to the 2020 presidential election, shifting from “lean Republican” to “toss up” in two states that voted GOP in 2016.
Cook’s Amy Walter noted on Tuesday that both states were moved from Likely Republican to Lean Republican last June. She wrote at the time: "We'll know soon enough if this trough is temporary, or if he's done permanent damage to his re-election prospects among one of his most solid constituencies: white, working-class voters."
On Tuesday, Walter wrote: “Well, it's late September, and polling in both states suggests that the Trump slump is real,” adding, “One big reason for Trump's continued struggle in these states is his narrowing margins with white, working-class voters,” according to recent polls, one from Quinnipiac University and one from Fox News.
“In both polls, Trump is underperforming his 2016 vote among white, non-college voters by 11 to 16 points,” Walter notes.
She concludes that the shift in Iowa and Ohio puts Biden in an “enviable position” where he doesn’t need to win any of the toss up states in order to win the election, while Trump “has to win all of them, plus another two states … to win the Electoral College” in 2020.
“Iowa and Ohio join Florida, Georgia, North Carolina and Maine's 2nd [Congressional District] in Toss Up. That leaves just one state, Texas, in Lean Republican. Biden is in the enviable position of not having to win any of those states to get to 270, while Trump has to win all of them, plus another two states (22 Electoral votes) to win the Electoral College.”
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