Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer, D-N.Y., contradicted House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, D-Calif., earlier this week when he told fellow senators that the House will lose its Democrat majority in the midterms, Punchbowl News reports.
The word of caution comes as Democrats’ prospects for the November midterms are looking up amid a dip in gas prices and the passage of the Inflation Reduction Act.
The White House also announced an 11th hour deal Thursday morning that will avert a major rail strike that would have further spiked inflation and severely damaged supply chains nationwide.
Schumer privately told a group of Democrat senators at a Monday night dinner that Pelosi is "in trouble" and Democrats are going to lose the House.
According to Punchbowl, the comments were made as the group dined at Trattoria Alberto, an Italian restaurant on Capitol Hill frequented by lawmakers from both sides of the aisle.
Senators at the dinner reportedly included Chris Coons of Delaware, Mark Kelly of Arizona, Chris Van Hollen of Maryland, Tom Carper of Delaware, John Hickenlooper of Colorado and Dick Durbin of Illinois.
Schumer’s comments contrast sharply with Pelosi’s assertion in recent days that Democrats would not only keep the House, but pick up seats as well.
"When the Dobbs decision came down, it wasn't one of those, 'If only we'd known,'" Pelosi told Punchbowl News' Jake Sherman Wednesday, referring to the Supreme Court decision that struck down federal abortion protections under Roe v. Wade. "No, we believed we were going to win from Jan. 6 on — well, even from November of last year on."
During the dinner, Schumer spoke loudly about a wide array of topics, according to Punchbowl, and his comments were overheard and confirmed by multiple sources.
According to the New York Democrat, if the election were held today, there would be "a 60% chance we hold the Senate, and a 40% chance we hold the House."
A Brookings Institution analysis found that, in the 40 midterm elections that have taken place since Abraham Lincoln’s time, the president's party has lost House seats 36 times, with the majority changing hands 17 times during that period.
In the modern era, the magnitude of House losses is generally in line with the depth of a president’s disapproval rating, in addition to how well the economy is doing.
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