The recent surge of Californians relocating to Arizona in recent years could lead to a Kamala Harris win in the state, one expert predicts, Newsweek reported.
Once a Republican stronghold, Arizona has become a crucial battleground state, where shifting demographics and new arrivals — including an influx of over 74,000 Californians in 2022 alone — may tilt the balance in favor of Democrats.
In 2020, Joe Biden defeated Donald Trump in Arizona by fewer than 11,000 votes. The state had supported Trump over Hillary Clinton in 2016 and rejected Obama in the two preceding elections.
Arizona's political landscape has transformed over the past decade, evidenced by the fact that Democrats now hold several key positions, including governor, attorney general, and secretary of state. Both U.S. Senate seats, traditionally controlled by Republicans, are now held by Democrat-aligned figures despite Sen. Kyrsten Sinema's switch to independent status.
Mark Shanahan, a U.S. presidential politics expert at the University of Surrey in the U.K., said the migration of Californians to Arizona has contributed to this shift.
He explained that the newcomers represent a diverse demographic, spanning various age groups and professional backgrounds. According to Shanahan, these migrants are more likely to have Democrat-leaning tendencies or, at the very least, anti-Trump sentiments.
"The net effect is to turn this once ruby-red state a much paler shade," he said, with Maricopa and Pinal counties — the most populous in the state — becoming increasingly pro-Democrat, in contrast to Arizona's more rural, Republican-leaning areas.
Shanahan also highlighted the impact of these new voters in urban areas such as Phoenix and Tucson, which could sway the upcoming election's outcome.
"Relatively few thousand new Democrat votes could make all the difference in a very tightly contested race," he said.
However, not all experts agree that the influx of Californians will be the decisive factor in Arizona's election outcome.
Dafydd Townley, an American politics lecturer at the University of Portsmouth, suggested that other issues, particularly abortion, could be more critical in determining the result. Arizona voters will decide in November whether to enshrine abortion rights in the state's constitution.
Townley also cautioned against assuming that all Californian migrants lean Democratic, pointing out that California has its own pockets of strong Republican support.
"It's unlikely that the electoral votes for Arizona will be decided on this one factor," he said, noting that broader issues such as reproductive rights could have a more significant influence.
An AARP poll released this week showed a tight race in Arizona.
Among likely voters, Trump led Harris by 2 percentage points, 49% to 47%. The poll surveyed 600 likely voters between Sept. 24 and Oct. 1 with a plus or minus margin of error of 4 percentage points.
Jim Thomas ✉
Jim Thomas is a writer based in Indiana. He holds a bachelor's degree in Political Science, a law degree from U.I.C. Law School, and has practiced law for more than 20 years.
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