An ex-adviser to former President Bill Clinton wrote a memo, which was obtained by Politico, stating that the upcoming midterm elections will be determined by "the condition of the economy."
Doug Sosnik, who spent six years in the Clinton White House, wrote that inflation, employment, and GDP growth will prove to be the "key" factors in the elections next year since they "most accurately gauge the strength of the economy and impact how voters think about the future."
He noted that "it is important to keep an eye on actions the Federal Reserve takes in response to these economic trends."
Sosnik went on to say that voters’ opinions are "formed by how people feel about the current direction of the country and their daily lives," and these views "harden by the end of the summer in the runup to voting in the fall."
He also pointed to the Supreme Court’s upcoming decisions on cases like "the pending Mississippi case" and "Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health Organization, which could potentially overturn Roe v. Wade."
Sosnik also describes the upcoming 2022 congressional elections as "the best political environment for the Republicans since 2010," saying that "in the first place, history is not on the Democrats’ side. With only two exceptions, 1998 and 2002, the president’s party has lost House seats in every midterm election since World War II."
He notes that "in addition, the country has voted for change in seven out of the last eight elections. In fact, during the last four presidents’ time in office, his party lost control of both the House and Senate. Beyond these longer-term patterns, and perhaps most important, after ten months in office [President Joe] Biden’s job approval is the second lowest of any president (former President Donald Trump had the worst) in the past 70 years."
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