Hillary Clinton's lead over Bernie Sanders in Iowa has narrowed dramatically with the Democratic presidential front-runner ahead by a mere five points, a new Monmouth University poll of likely Democratic caucus-goers reveals.
And with the poll's margin of error of plus or minus 4.4 percentage points, the former secretary of state is really just a whisker in front of the U.S. senator from Vermont as Monday's Iowa caucuses approach.
"Support for Sanders has come from those who are new to the process, but the current poll indicates he is also cutting into Clinton's lead among die-hard Democratic partisans," said Patrick Murray, director of the non-partisan, New-Jersey based Monmouth University Polling Institute.
The poll shows:
- Hillary Clinton — 47 percent
- Bernie Sanders — 42 percent
- Martin O'Malley — 6 percent
- Undecided/Uncommitted — 6 percent
Clinton's lead is down from 22 points just one month ago. In December, she held a substantial 55 percent to 33 percent advantage over Sanders.
And a high turnout could make this race even tighter.
"Given the way Iowa's Democratic caucuses work, Clinton could start the night with more supporters, but Sanders could win the delegate count," Murray said.
Clinton also leads over Sanders among female voters by 50 percent to 38 percent — but the spread is not as large as her 61 percent to 27 percent advantage last month.
The two are basically tied among men, according to Monmouth, with 46 percent for Sanders and 43 percent for Clinton. Last month, Clinton had a slight 47 percent to 42 percent edge among men.
Looking at the age factor, Monmouth found Clinton leads Sanders by 54 percent to 34 percent among voters age 50 and older — which is a bit weaker than her 63 percent to 26 percent lead in December.
Sanders has the lead among voters under 50 by a 59 percent to 31 percent margin, which is wider than last month when he topped Clinton, 48 percent to 38 percent.
As to how the turnout will be for Monday's caucus, Monmouth calls it "extremely unpredictable."
Over the past 35 years, reported turnout has ranged from a low of about 30,000 in 1992 to a high of nearly 240,000 in 2008. The current poll's screening rate for likely caucus-goers projects a turnout of about 110,000 voters.
Monmouth's telephone poll of 504 likely Democratic caucus-goers was conducted Jan. 23 to 26.
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