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Tags: arizona | poll | kari lake | senate | gop | primary | lamb

Ariz. Poll: Kari Lake's Senate Primary Lead Thins

By    |   Thursday, 23 May 2024 12:46 PM EDT

Kari Lake maintains more than a 2-to-1 lead over her opponent in Arizona's Republican Senate primary race despite an 8-point drop in support since the last survey, according to a Noble Predictive Insights (NPI) poll released Thursday.

Lake has a 46% to 21% lead over Mark Lamb ahead of the July 30 GOP primary. However, Lake had 54% support in February's NPI survey. The amount of voters who are "not sure" went from 17% in February to 25% in the latest poll.

"Something we don't typically see is an increase in undecided voters this close to primary election day. While Lake remains the frontrunner, her diminishing lead and the growing number of undecided voters indicate a volatile race," NPI founder and CEO Mike Noble said in his analysis.

Further, Lamb’s net favorability rating among GOP voters in Arizona stands at plus-36 compared to plus-32 for Lake, according to the poll.

"It's not that Mark Lamb is unpopular among Republicans; they just prefer Lake as their nominee – for now," Noble wrote. "Being liked is half the battle, and Lamb has the edge over Lake there. He just needs to change up his strategy to make a good enough case for himself."

Lake is expected to defeat Lamb and move on to challenge Rep. Ruben Gallego, D-Ariz., in November’s general election. The race is to replace Sen. Kyrsten Sinema, I-Ariz., who decided not to run for reelection. Arizona is one of a handful of key Senate races that will determine whether Republicans can retake the majority in the upper chamber in 2025.

Gallego leads Lake in the hypothetical matchup by 10 points, 46% to 36%, according to the survey. Gallego is plus-16 over Lake among independents. Another 19% of voters say they’re undecided.

"Ruben Gallego's lead in the general election, especially among Independents, highlights the challenges Lake would face in a broader contest," Noble wrote. "Democrats are more unified than Republicans at this stage, which gives Gallego an advantage."

NPI surveyed 1,003 registered voters from May 7-14. The poll has a margin of error of plus/minus 3.09 points.

Mark Swanson

Mark Swanson, a Newsmax writer and editor, has nearly three decades of experience covering news, culture and politics.

© 2024 Newsmax. All rights reserved.


Politics
Kari Lake maintains more than a 2-to-1 lead over her opponent in Arizona's Republican Senate primary race despite an 8-point drop in support since the last survey, according to a Noble Predictive Insights (NPI) poll released Thursday.
arizona, poll, kari lake, senate, gop, primary, lamb
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2024-46-23
Thursday, 23 May 2024 12:46 PM
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