Zogby: Generic Ballot Shows Democrats Ahead as November Approaches

A new Zogby Analytics Congressional generic ballot shows Democrats leading by 12 points -- 42 percent to 30 percent -- as the November elections approach.

"In the full interests of truth, the Congressional Generic is not the best barometric reading for an election outcome, but it is at least a useful trend to watch," said Zogby co-founder and senior analyst John Zogby, in his column for Forbes.

According to the generic ballot, Democrats are ahead with both men, at 43 percent to 29 percent, and women, at 40 percent to 30 percent. Democrats also lead by 64 percent to 10 percent among 18-29 year olds and by 44 percent to 28 percent among voters between the ages of 30 and 49.

But Republicans lead with older voters, by 41 percent to 31 percent among 50 to 64 year olds and by 38 percent to 31 percent with those over the age of 65.

The Zogby generic ballot is in contrast with other polls released this past week. A Fox poll showed Independent voters were twice as likely to say they would support the Republican candidate.

Further, in a recent NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll, 54 percent of Independents favored Republicans, while 16 percent preferred Democrats in a lead that Republicans have not matched in a decade.

Meanwhile, in the Zogby poll, Democrats supported their candidates more than Republicans, said Zogby.

"The 'Democratic congressional candidate' does better among Democrats, by 87 percent to 3 percent, than the 'Republican Congressional candidate' does among Republicans, by 74 percent to 7 percent," writes Zogby. "The same is true among liberals who support the Democrat in their district by 83 percent to 6 percent, while conservatives only back the Republican, 61 percent to 15 percent.

Independents and moderates could sway the vote, though, said Zogby. Moderates chose Democrats by 42 percent to 19 percent, with six percent choosing "other" and 34 percent undecided.

"That might not mean a hill of beans in November because there are so many gerrymandered safe districts that moderates don't mean much," said Zogby. "But independents are the truly interesting ones, only half of whom are moderates, with two in three of the remaining describing themselves as conservatives."

In the poll, 20 percent of the independents said they would vote for the Democrat and 16 percent for the Republican. Fifteen percent said "other" and 49 percent are undecided.

Meanwhile, groups Republicans usually count on are likely to be undecided, including 27 percent of white voters, said Zogby, as opposed to 11 percent of African Americans; 8 percent of Hispanics; and 24 percent of protestants.

But despite the numbers, said Zogby, Republicans are still favored to hold onto the House of Representatives.

"At least for now, there is no sign of a wave in their favor, something that had started to take shape at this point in time in 2010," said Zogby.

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